Israel Iran uprising plan deemed strategic miscalculationA detailed analysis by The New York Times concludes that Israeli and US expectations of triggering an uprising in Iran were fundamentally flawed. The report highlights intelligence gaps, internal disagreements in Washington, and Türkiye’s diplomatic warnings, underscoring how assumptions about regime collapse in Tehran failed to align with realities on the ground.
The report by The New York Times reveals that Israeli and US officials misjudged the likelihood of sparking a mass uprising in Iran, despite early optimism during the conflict. The analysis, based on interviews with senior American and Israeli figures, indicates that expectations of rapid regime destabilisation in Tehran did not materialise, exposing critical flaws in strategic planning.
According to the report, Mossad presented a detailed proposal to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outlining how internal unrest could be ignited in Iran. The plan suggested that coordinated intelligence operations, combined with early military strikes, could mobilise opposition groups within days and potentially trigger wider instability capable of weakening the Iranian leadership.
The proposal reportedly included scenarios such as targeting senior Iranian leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, alongside psychological and covert operations aimed at encouraging mass protests. Mossad chief David Barnea also presented the same framework to senior officials in Washington during a visit earlier this year.
While Donald Trump was described as receptive to the plan, several US intelligence and military officials expressed reservations. They warned that the conditions inside Iran were not conducive to a large-scale uprising, particularly under external military pressure.
Officials argued that widespread airstrikes would likely deter, rather than encourage, civilian mobilisation. “People are unlikely to take to the streets while bombs are falling,” one assessment indicated, reflecting concerns that the strategy overlooked Iran’s internal dynamics and security environment.
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