A classified CIA assessment has warned that deepening political, economic and social fractures could put Israel at risk of civil war or state collapse, according to a report published Monday. The assessment, titled “Fracture From Within,” was prepared in August by the CIA’s Red Cell, a unit tasked with challenging prevailing intelligence assumptions, Drop Site News reported, citing two US sources familiar with its contents. The CIA did not respond to the outlet’s request for comment. The assessment points to a volatile mix of pressures ahead of Israel’s Oct. 27 election, including economic strain, rising military spending, anger over exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews and escalating violence by Israeli occupiers in the occupied West Bank. It also identifies Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fight to remain in power as a source of further political and constitutional tension. Years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have deepened existing divisions, according to the report, as soldiers return from prolonged combat, many suffering serious psychological trauma. The military draft dispute has emerged as one of Israel’s sharpest internal fault lines, with resentment growing over exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men following repeated reserve mobilizations. The assessment also points to Israel’s growing international isolation, including eroding support in the US, as another factor that could deepen internal instability.
The UK has warned Israel that it will expel 27 Israeli diplomats from the Israeli embassy in London unless Tel Aviv reverses its decision to close the British Consulate General in East Jerusalem, Israel’s Ynet news website reported Monday The warning came in a message delivered to Israeli officials by British Ambassador to Israel Simon Walters, the daily said. The development has further strained the countries’ deteriorating bilateral ties. Last month, the UK announced a trade ban on goods from illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, citing the existence of "ethnic cleansing of Palestinians." The move followed Israeli plans to build 1,200 new homes in the occupied territory, drawing widespread international condemnation, as all settlements in the West Bank are illegal under international law. Israel announced plans to close the British Consulate in occupied East Jerusalem, which serves as a liaison for Palestinians, in response to the UK’s move.
Prof. Avi Shlaim, Emeritus Fellow of St Antony’s College and Emeritus Professor of International Relations at the University of Oxford and a historian of Iraqi Jewish descent, said: ❝Zionism is not Judaism. The founders of Zionism were atheists, but used God as a land agent who allocated Palestine to Jews.❞