Experts warn Russian shadow fleet puts Baltic Sea at major oil spill risk

Maritime analysts have warned that Russia’s growing “shadow fleet” of oil tankers in the Baltic Sea poses an imminent threat of a multibillion-dollar environmental disaster.

At least 17 fully loaded tankers operated under false flags in the Baltic in July, Swedish broadcaster SVT reported Sunday, citing data from analysis firm Windward.

Michelle Wiese Bockmann, senior analyst at Windward, said it is “only a matter of time before a tens of billion-dollar oil spill occurs,” adding that coastal states will likely bear the costs of the damage.

The shadow fleet — estimated at more than 600 ships — has expanded as Western sanctions squeeze Russia’s oil exports. Many of the tankers evade safety rules by sailing without valid insurance or seaworthiness certificates, leaving them effectively stateless.

Windward said some vessels stripped of registration because of sanctions or poor maintenance have been re-registered in fraudulent registries run by letterbox companies.

“We have discovered eleven fraudulent registers used by shipping companies operating in Russia. They are just worthless pieces of paper,” Bockmann said.

International law does not prevent such ships from operating, but coastal states may intervene if they identify risks.

Bockmann said European governments are responding with the tools they have, but the issue “cannot be solved overnight.”