Trump's Iran seesaw...

The joint book by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, titled "Reign of Fire: The Inside Story of Donald Trump's Imperial Presidency," was released last week by the mainstream US publication The New York Times. The approximately 500-page book includes details of the debates in Trump's "Situation Room" regarding the war with Iran.

On Sunday, journalist Maggie Haberman, who appeared on NBC News's "Meet The Press" program, noted that US Vice President JD Vance was the only one who openly argued that a war aimed at regime change in Iran should not be fought.

Let us recall that JD Vance has become the public face of the negotiations regarding the signing of the "Memorandum of Understanding" with Iran. Due to the role he played in the negotiations, Vance has become the target of anti-Iran hawks, Neocons, Israel, and Zionist commentators in the US.

Vance, who remained in the background in the early stages of the war, came to the fore after Trump's decision for a ceasefire with Iran. Staunchly pro-Israel hawkish Republicans, who strongly opposed reaching a deal with Iran, turned their arrows toward Vance instead of directly targeting Trump.

In fact, during the 2024 election campaign, Vance had promised that the US would not go to war with Iran. In an interview at the time, Vance stated that the US did not have to constantly monitor every region of the world, saying: "I think it's in our interest not to go to war with Iran. That would cause a massive diversion of resources. It would be a huge financial burden on our country." In another program, he described a war between Israel and Iran as the most likely and most dangerous scenario that could trigger World War III.

It did not go unnoticed that Vance was not in the room on February 28 when Trump directed the attack on Iran. At that time, a photo was published showing Vance alongside Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, who was known to be against the war with Iran. Gabbard stood out with her sullen expression. The photo revealed that Vance and Gabbard were displeased.

It was also leaked to the media that Vance was opposed to the airstrikes against Houthi forces in Yemen, who had closed the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in response to Israel. According to Vance, the Houthis closing the strait to ships carrying cargo to Israel was not America's problem.

Some time ago, Vance's criticism of Israel, which was trying to disrupt the ceasefire agreement with Iran, caused ripples in Tel Aviv and Washington. Although signed by Trump, the "Memorandum of Understanding" is referred to in pro-Israel circles as "Vance's Agreement."

In the Trump administration, when the 'Iran deal' is on track, Vice President JD Vance comes to the fore; when the parties move away from the deal, pro-Israel hawk Secretary of State Marco Rubio takes the spotlight. Depending on Trump's position, one goes up and the other goes down on the seesaw. Trump puts forward either Rubio or Vance depending on the situation. The two figures, representing different wings of the Republican camp, also rank high on the list of presidential candidates for the 2028 elections.

In the joint book by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, it was stated that Vance believed a regime-change war with Iran would be a disaster. According to the book, Vance warned Trump that a war with Iran could fracture his political coalition and that many voters who believed in his promise of "no new wars" would see it as a betrayal.

On the NBC News program, when asked, "How did Vice President Vance's stance affect his position with Trump?", Haberman replied: "Vance was the only one who really spoke up to Trump on this issue. It angered Trump and damaged Vance's standing with him, but he was truly the only one who shook the status quo."

Haberman said that the debates in the "Situation Room" regarding the war with Iran were limited to a very small group. Due to concerns about leaks regarding the war decision, even the Treasury Secretary and the Energy Secretary, who would have to manage the consequences of the negative effects this war would cause in the energy sector, were excluded from these discussions.

Trump had been warned about the possible negative outcomes of a war with Iran. He ignored all of them. The decision was limited to a very small number of people, but Israel and Netanyahu were extremely influential in making that decision. In the end, this war was Israel's war. Now, Trump is relying on Vance to repair the damage caused by Israel's war. Or so it seems.