Wheat, rice, cotton prices rise amid climate and geopolitical risks

Geopolitical risks and climate patterns drove a sharp divergence in agricultural commodity markets in the first half of the year, with wheat, rice and cotton prices rising strongly. Zafer Ergezen, a futures and commodity markets expert, told Anadolu that the El Niño weather phenomenon and the economic fallout from the US‑Israel‑Iran conflict had led to fundamental changes in global supply chains and production costs.

Wheat, rice, and cotton surge

Rice surged 24% on the Chicago Board of Trade amid droughts affecting harvests across the Asia‑Pacific region. Wheat rose 16.2% to its highest level since June 2024, reaching $6.8825 per bushel due to extreme drought in key US agricultural regions. Wheat planting in the US fell to historic lows amid logistical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and surging fertiliser costs linked to the Middle East conflict. Soybeans rose 9.2% due to higher fertiliser prices and strong demand from China. Cotton increased 19.5% amid frost and drought risks in the US, while rising energy costs pushed polyester production costs higher, prompting textile manufacturers to shift demand back to cotton. Lower rainfall in parts of India reduced harvests, driving up rice and cotton prices.

Coffee, sugar, cocoa decline

Ergezen said coffee, sugar, cocoa and corn prices fell significantly during the same period. Coffee tumbled 15% to its lowest level since September 2024 amid rising exports from Vietnam and expectations of a record harvest in Brazil. Surplus rainfall in Brazil pushed sugar prices down 1.3% to their lowest level since October 2020. Cocoa dropped 16.3% amid weak demand and a positive harvest outlook in West Africa. Corn fell 1% due to periodic easing of US‑Iran tensions and an accelerating harvest in Argentina.