European children face twice as much extreme fire weather: Study

Children born in Europe this year could experience nearly double the lifetime exposure to extreme fire-conducive weather compared with those born 75 years ago, according to research published Monday in the journal Environmental Research Letters. The study stated that under current climate policies — projected to result in approximately 2.6 degrees Celsius of global warming — a child born in 2025 will face three additional years of extreme fire weather conditions than someone born in 1950.

Researchers examined 21 different climate scenarios ranging from 1.5 degrees to 3.5 degrees of warming by century's end. They noted that extreme fire weather comprises days with conditions more severe than the worst 5 percent recorded during the 1985–2014 reference period — hot, dry and windy conditions that allow fires to spread rapidly and burn more intensely.

Mediterranean hotspots

The increase is expected to be most pronounced across the Mediterranean region, where children born in 2025 could face five additional years of extreme fire weather compared with the post-war baby boom generation. These findings come as Europe confronts increasingly severe wildfire conditions, with hot, dry and windy weather having been exacerbated by more than a century of fossil fuel emissions that have driven temperatures up at roughly twice the global average rate.

Climate drivers

The researchers said that 86 percent of the increased exposure stems from climate change itself, while the remaining 14 percent is linked to longer life expectancy. Limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius — the most ambitious Paris Agreement target — would reduce the lifetime exposure for children born today by 1.3 years compared with the current-policy scenario, which is projected to deliver 84 percent more extreme fire weather than experienced by the 1950 cohort.