The race for “Great Spheres of Influence” has begun!

The destinies of the Middle East and Latin America, just as during the Cold War, are once again becoming intertwined today. In 1953, a joint coup by the United States and Britain crushed Iran’s nascent parliamentary democracy. Iran’s democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mossadegh, was removed through this coup. The Shah, who owed his throne to the US and Britain, went on to rule Iran despotically.

Similarly, in Chile in 1973, Salvador Allende—like Mossadegh, elected through democratic means—was overthrown by a military coup organized by the United States. Iran had oil; Chile had rich copper reserves. Mossadegh nationalized oil, while Allende nationalized the highly valuable copper mines. Supposedly, the US carried out these ominous coups to prevent Iran and Chile from falling under Soviet influence.

Today, there is no “Soviet Union.” In its place stands “China,” which the US now views as an existential threat. According to American hawks and neoconservatives, Venezuela’s and Iran’s relations with China threaten US interests. Trump’s new interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine seeks to firmly establish US dominance over the Western Hemisphere.

The first victim of this “Trumpist Monroe Doctrine” was Venezuela. It is said that Trump backed away from military intervention in Iran at the last moment. According to some analysts, however, the option of intervening in Iran remains on the table. Such an intervention would inevitably plunge the region into chaos.

Having claimed to “run” Venezuela, Trump’s next target is Greenland. Trump imposed additional tariffs on eight European countries—NATO allies—that opposed his move to seize Greenland. A military intervention in Greenland would effectively mean the end of NATO.

The dissolution of the “Atlantic Alliance” would turn Europe’s political architecture upside down. The rise of the far right across European Union countries offers clues as to the direction this new architecture may take. The collapse of the Atlantic Alliance could accelerate the disintegration of the EU. The EU lacks the will and leadership capacity to uphold a rules-based liberal international order.

At the same time, there is growing discussion of European, Chinese, Russian, and Indian versions of a Trump-style Monroe Doctrine. The concept of “Great Spheres of Influence,” debated before and after the First World War, has returned to the agenda. Ideas are being floated about bilateral, trilateral, quadrilateral, even five- or six-party spheres of influence—such as “US–China,” “US–China–Russia,” or “US–China–Russia–India.” These views emphasize that the world order shaped by Western values and norms has reached its limits.

The world is drifting from a “rules-based order” toward a “power-based order.” Trump’s announcement that he would raise the 2027 defense budget to $1.5 trillion will fuel a global arms race. It is no coincidence that Trump renamed the “Department of Defense” the “Department of War.” Before the First World War, European powers were also locked in an arms race and a struggle for great spheres of influence. That competition inevitably led to a world war. Yet that war failed to prevent another one from erupting just twenty years later.

In none of these Monroe-style models of vast spheres of sovereignty is there a place for the “Islamic world.” In this new architecture of dominance—resembling a mafia order—there is uncertainty over where to place the Islamic world, or which sphere of influence it should belong to. Like many regions of the world, will the fragmented Islamic world become the grass trampled beneath fighting elephants? Or will it fend for itself? This is the great unanswered question.

In the transition from the First World War to the Second, the League of Nations lost its effectiveness. Today, the United Nations is in a similar position. The UN has been weakened by its leading founders and supposed guarantors, foremost among them the United States. The international legal order is no longer credible, and the perception that it has expired is spreading.

Israel, which seeks to eliminate Palestinians, appears to be relying on a “Biological Monroe Doctrine.” The logic of Israel’s racist Zionists mirrors the Nazis’ logic of physically annihilating Jews. Both mindsets ultimately led their perpetrators to genocide.

The world is being driven toward a forest—and this forest is shrouded in fog. Humanity is entering this foggy forest without a lantern. You cannot be sure where you step. Is this the real world? Is the world we live in a battlefield? Is there no place for genuine peace?

There is—there must be. Every poison has an antidote, every darkness a dawn. Undoubtedly, those who seek the cure will find it.