Who will win the tug‑of‑war?

There are elections in Israel in October and in the US in November. Republicans already control both chambers of the US Congress, albeit by a narrow margin. The war with Iran and the anti‑Israel sentiment taking root in American public opinion could cost the Republicans dearly. If the Republicans lose even one of the two chambers of Congress, it would create serious difficulties for Trump. Losing the Senate on top of that would multiply those difficulties.

Indeed, many Republican senators are warning that if Trump fails to reach a deal that ends the war with Iran and keeps the Strait of Hormuz open, Republicans will face a very tough election. It is a well‑known voter behavior to make the candidates of the president who started a war pay the price of that war, which makes life more expensive for ordinary Americans. Senator Shelley Moore Capito said in a statement to CNN: "It's not just about gas prices, food prices and the like. There is a kind of frustration. I think the pressure is on the president to reach a peaceful resolution and put this issue behind us."

Politicians backed by the 'Israel Lobby', on the other hand, want the war with Iran to continue to the end. Mark Levin and other Zionist commentators in the US strongly oppose any deal with Iran. Mark Levin accuses figures like Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Piers Morgan, Matt Gaetz, and Steve Bannon, who oppose the US going to war with Iran, of undermining Trump. According to Levin, these figures should be held responsible if Republicans lose the midterms. Piers Morgan responded by saying that if Republicans suffer losses, it will be because of "war‑mongering idiots" like Mark Levin.

Statements by US Vice President JD Vance that when the interests of the US and Israel diverge, the interests of the American people will come first, are also infuriating the Zionists. Israeli journalist Gila Isaacson, in an article titled "JD Vance Shows His True Colors," noted that Vance voted against the aid package to Israel when he was a senator, and since becoming Vice President has remained silent on 'anti‑Semitism' and opposed the war with Iran, saying: "His past says it all, and it is not the past of a friend."

Gila Isaacson pointed out that Vance has embraced young Republicans who criticize unconditional US support for Israel. Noting that support for Israel, which is a cornerstone of the Republican Party, is surprisingly eroding among young Republicans, Isaacson said: "This is who JD Vance is: a man who understands this shift and does not oppose it, because this shift is politically useful to him." Isaacson, who argues that Vance is leading the Republican Party away from its historic love for and commitment to Israel, ended her article with the sentence: "JD Vance has shown us, repeatedly and clearly, which side he is on. That side is not Israel's side."

Trump wants to reach a deal with Iran as soon as possible. Netanyahu's fate, however, depends on the continuation of the war. While Trump is trying to declare a 'victory' on the surface and climb out of the pit Netanyahu has pushed him into, Netanyahu is trying to keep Trump in the pit. Trump, who entered the war with Iran for Israel's sake, appears tired of Netanyahu's sabotage aimed at derailing the negotiations.

Pro‑Israel politicians are also trying to make military support for Israel permanent by slipping a clause titled "US‑Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative" into the National Defense Authorization Act. Senator Tom Cotton, meanwhile, included a clause titled "Enhancing US‑Israel Intelligence Sharing" into the Intelligence Authorization Act.

According to analysts, the mandatory intelligence sharing foreseen in the bill would prevent any future administration from applying pressure to deter Israel's destructive behavior. The bill would effectively legitimize Israel's espionage activities against the US.

These amendment proposals are aimed at preventing anti‑Israel sentiment in American public opinion from eroding unconditional support for Israel. Some analysts argue that Trump could use these proposals as leverage to deter Netanyahu from sabotaging negotiations with Iran.

Everything in Washington, including the negotiations with Iran, is about the US and Israeli elections. Setting up an equation that would save both Trump and Netanyahu seems very difficult. There is a "tug‑of‑war" between Trump and Netanyahu. On the other hand, a fierce battle is also taking place within the Republican camp between those who say "America First" and those who say "Israel First."