Will Trump stop wars by starting one?

Genocidal Israel is dragging the world toward war by attacking Iran as well. You might think that’s an exaggerated, bleak, or overly dramatic statement. But sometimes, our instincts and gut feelings are reflections of the reality we’re sleepwalking into. As with the two world wars, this isn’t a quiet descent into chaos—it’s a full march, with drums and trumpets blaring.

American historian Barbara Tuchman titled her early 1980s book The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam. The German translation chose a blunter phrasing: The Stupidity of Those Who Govern. In her widely discussed work, Tuchman listed the devastating wars triggered by rulers who failed—or refused—to see what was right in front of them. She pointed out how, time and again, leaders ignored warnings while marching headlong into disaster.

Athenian general Thucydides, who lived 2,500 years ago, also saw history repeating itself. In his account of the Peloponnesian War—the conflict that brought down classical Greece—he hoped his work would become a “possession for all time.” Though he didn’t live to see the end of the 27-year war, he believed that future generations would benefit from understanding the decisions, emotions, and actions that led to catastrophic conflict.

The Peloponnesian War, involving hundreds of city-states, broken alliances, and ever-shifting enemies and friends, was in many ways an ancient world war. One of its key lessons is this: miscalculations can plunge entire nations into irreversible ruin.

A striking example is Athens’ disastrous expedition to Sicily. Arrogantly convinced that they could finance their ongoing wars with the riches of Sicilian city-states, the Athenians launched an invasion. It ended in failure and massive losses—ultimately shifting the balance of the war in Sparta’s favor. Notably, the Persian Empire—long-time enemy of both Athens and Sparta—chose to back Sparta. Today, historians often call the Sicilian expedition “Athens’ Vietnam.”

Weakened by war, both Athens and Sparta eventually fell into the hands of the rising Macedonian kingdom in the north. Their rivalry came to an end, and power passed to the father of the man we now know as Alexander the Great.

Today, the United States—by emboldening Israel—is playing a similarly dangerous game. No one truly believes that Israel attacked Iran without U.S. approval. Former President Donald Trump repeatedly promised to end America’s forever wars. And despite what neoconservatives and pro-Israel hawks claim, everyday Americans don’t want their country dragged into Israel’s battles. Trump knows this. So does Israel. So do the neocons. But fearing the loss of U.S. support, Israel may try to force America’s hand, triggering a regional inferno.

We are at a perilous point in the global power shift. As Shakespeare put it, we are rushing toward “a time out of joint.” Warnings are already being voiced that Israel’s unhinged actions could spark conflicts far beyond the Middle East.

Trump once said, “I won’t start new wars—I’ll end them.” But by encouraging Netanyahu, he may be opening not one war, but many. The irony? Trump has the power to stop this. Israel needs the United States far more than the U.S. needs Israel. Without American support, Israel simply doesn’t have the capacity to sustain a war—something even Israelis themselves know.

The Roman statesman Cato the Elder once said that those who have the power to prevent wrongdoing but choose not to are in fact encouraging it. As voices from within Trump’s own base urge the U.S. not to get involved in Israel’s wars, he would do well to listen. If he truly doesn’t want new wars, he must ignore the neocons and heed the warnings.

But history suggests that folly marches on—its eyes closed, its ears shut, heading straight toward our region.