The Strait of Hormuz and the 2026 energy supply shock

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to one of the largest energy supply shocks in the global economy since the 1970s, becoming a major strategic chokepoint that has trapped the world economy in a cycle of rising costs and supply constraints.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz negatively affects both Gulf countries that rely on oil and natural gas revenues and, at the same time, countries—particularly in Asia—that depend on energy imports from this region.

Therefore, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose multiple threats to the global economy.

MACROECONOMIC IMPACTS

The impact of the Strait of Hormuz on economies has manifested itself through supply security concerns and rising crude oil prices.

On the day the war began, the futures price of Brent crude—considered the international benchmark—stood at $72.48 per barrel, whereas it is now around $110, making it clear that this represents a serious shock for economies.

From an energy supply security perspective, the Strait of Hormuz continues to deeply affect Asian countries in particular, as a large share of the region’s energy resources is directed toward China, India, Japan, and South Korea.

The country most dependent on Gulf states is South Korea.

Due to their energy consumption levels and growth potential, countries such as China and India are under significant production and inflationary pressure as a result of rising oil prices and supply disruptions.

The Strait of Hormuz is also affecting energy demand security.

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar—countries dependent on energy revenues—have not only faced major economic losses but have also been forced to reduce daily production due to the lack of export routes and the saturation of storage capacity.

These conditions not only negatively affect energy supply security but also threaten energy demand security.

IMPACTS ON GLOBAL TRADE

Meanwhile, rising energy prices and disruptions in energy supply security have also pushed up the prices of other critical exports from the region—such as fertilizer, aluminum, and helium—thereby disrupting global supply chains.

It is clear that this will affect many manufacturing sectors.

In addition, alternative transport routes used following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have increased shipping times and raised the overall cost of global trade.

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE ECONOMY OF TÜRKİYE

Although Türkiye does not have a high level of direct dependence on Gulf countries, rising energy prices are creating pressure by increasing inflation, delaying potential interest rate cuts by the central bank, and raising the import bill.