Trump tightens ranks ahead of November elections

It would not be surprising if Trump's deeply unpopular standing becomes a liability for Republicans in the congressional elections to be held in November. Voters, who are already complaining about the economic impact of the war with Iran, may take out their frustration on Republicans in the midterms. Depending on the weight of that backlash, it is possible that both the Senate—the upper chamber of Congress—and the House of Representatives could flip to the Democrats. Even if the Democrats only capture the House, Trump's lame‑duck years will not be easy. The Democrats would launch an intense effort to halt or reverse Trump's actions, including impeachment proceedings. At a time when support for Israel and the war with Iran, alongside the economy, are fueling polarization, Trump appears to be trying to "tighten the ranks" by investing in even more Trumpist and pro‑Israel candidates during the party's primary process.

INTERNAL PARTY OPPOSITION IS NOT TOLERATED

In Louisiana's primary, Republican Senator Bill Cassidy was pushed out of the race against candidates backed by Trump. Senators who had previously opposed Trump had avoided running in primaries against Trumpist candidates, but Cassidy declared he "would not back down without a fight." With this victory—backing loyalist candidates against a Republican senator for the first time—Trump showed once again that the party has become entirely Trump's party. Cassidy's unforgivable sin was working with Democrats during the impeachment proceedings against Trump and continuing to oppose Trump afterward. Having already appointed only loyalists to his cabinet in his second term, Trump sent the message that the party's Senate and House candidates must also meet this criterion.

Representative Thomas Massie, one of the harshest internal party critics, was also pushed out of the primary race. Massie, who directly confronted the Israel lobby, managed to win support from middle‑aged and young Republican voters despite $16 million spent against him, but he could not convince voters over 65. In this race—which shows how toxic the Israel lobby has become in U.S. politics—a total of $33 million was spent, the most ever spent in a House race. Massie, who made his voice heard through his fierce opposition to the Epstein files, aid to Israel, and the war with Iran, was framed by the Israel lobby as antisemitic. After the election, Massie showed he had not backed down by saying, "I called to congratulate my opponent, but it took a while to reach him in Tel Aviv."

THE TRUMPIST AND PRO‑ISRAEL LINE HARDENS

The sidelining of Trump critics like Cassidy and Massie, with the support of the Israel lobby, sends a clear message to Republican candidates: there is no place in the party for those who oppose Trump and Israel. At a time when Israel has become so controversial and Trump's popularity has hit rock bottom, the party's insistence on a Trumpist and pro‑Israel policy creates a critical risk ahead of the November elections. Overly Trumpist names that scare off independent voters upset with the economy, and pro‑Israel candidates that alienate young voters opposed to the war, could cause the Republican Party to lose its congressional majority in November. A Democratic takeover would mean an attempt to reverse everything Trump has done so far and the launch of impeachment proceedings.

Trump's next target is to defeat Texas Senator John Cornyn in the primaries to be held next week. Although Cornyn has not fiercely opposed Trump, he is not seen as "loyal enough." If Cornyn loses the primary, that Senate seat could become risky for Republicans in November. Trump has decided to unexpectedly back Ken Paxton, a darker Trumpist candidate against Cornyn, appearing willing to risk raising Democrats' hopes in Texas. If the primary‑elected extreme MAGA candidates are seen as too radical and ideological by independent voters, that could backfire on Republicans. In states like Alabama, where Republicans are all but guaranteed to win, such ideological candidates won't be a problem, but in swing states like Georgia—where the electorate is mainly conservative yet both senators are Democrats—they could be a disadvantage.

WILL THE DEMOCRATS SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY?

Despite the Republicans' insistence on a Trumpist and pro‑Israel line, it is hard to say that the Democratic side has crafted a common policy to turn this equation into an opportunity. The progressive left wing of the Democrats has managed to condemn taking money from the Israel lobby as nearly treasonous, but the party's centrist wing prefers to focus on Trump and the economy and is wary of the idea of making Israel into a problem. Moreover, Biden administration officials who support Israel's genocide are now trying to put themselves forward, while even figures like former President Obama—who represent the party's "common sense"—cannot muster the courage to criticize Israel. Although the number of senators like Bernie Sanders, who advocate suspending aid to Israel, has reached historic levels, there are not many politicians willing to directly confront the Israel lobby. This could mean that even if Trumpist candidates lose in November, the Israel lobby will largely retain its influence, depending on the stance of Democratic candidates.

As Trump shows he has succeeded in transforming his party and marches toward November, it remains unclear what kind of unity will be achieved between the Democratic left and center. In the November elections, candidate preferences between the left and center, and their performances, will also shape candidate profiles heading into the 2028 presidential election. Currently, centrist candidates dominate the list of potential Democratic presidential nominees, but one of the prominent lessons from Kamala Harris's defeat was that she could not win without the support of the young, progressive left. The outcome of the November elections will be instructive not only for how the American electorate treats Trumpist and pro‑Israel candidates, but also for how far to the left the Democrats will be tolerated to go. In an election where Trump will insist on Trumpism, the Democrats must come up with a formula that attracts anti‑war, young, and progressive voters, as well as the support of independent voters who are alienated by Trump's tightening of the ranks.