What direction will Trump's Türkiye policy take?

In the first week after Trump’s election victory, he named several people he intends to appoint to his cabinet, signaling that border security and immigration will be his top priorities. While Trump aims to speed up Senate confirmations for these appointments, his full foreign policy team is yet to be finalized. His exclusion of figures like Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo suggests he’s looking to avoid repeating dynamics from his first term. In place of those who once had their own agendas and aspirations, Trump seems focused on appointing loyal figures who will align closely with his objectives.

In his initial presidency, several high-profile advisors—referred to as “the adults in the room”—often worked to moderate or redirect Trump’s policies. This time, however, he is expected to push forward without tolerating such interference. With a likely Republican majority in Congress and potentially weaker public opposition, Trump may now have more freedom to pursue his agenda. This could have important implications for his Türkiye policy as well.

**SYRIA**

In his first term, Trump encountered broad resistance to his foreign policy from cabinet members, Congress, the media, and the military. Entering the presidency as an outsider to Washington, he also lacked full influence over the Republican Party. His reluctance to criticize Putin led to opposition from key institutions, and Congress passed the CAATSA law, which was later used against Türkiye after its S-400 purchase. Trump, while sympathetic to Türkiye’s position, found it difficult to resist Congressional and security pressures.

While Trump had planned to withdraw from Syria, he faced pushback on this as well. When Türkiye offered to partner in the operation to liberate Raqqa from Daesh, CENTCOM blocked the proposal, leading Trump to authorize continued support for the YPG in order to fulfill his anti-Daesh commitments. Despite Trump’s public announcement of a Syria withdrawal, there was a strong public backlash, leading him to reconsider under pressure. Now, if Trump pursues withdrawal in his second term, the Congressional majority and lack of reelection pressure may allow him to follow through. Coordination with Türkiye in this process could alleviate one of the most contentious points in Turkish-American relations.

**UKRAINE**

During his campaign, Trump pledged to end the Ukraine war. Reports suggest his plan may involve Ukraine giving up NATO membership for 20 years and Russia retaining certain gains. If the war shifts to a frozen conflict, Türkiye, which played a key mediating role early in the conflict, could support Trump’s peace efforts as a mediator. Trump's aim to cut aid to Ukraine could prompt a reevaluation of NATO’s Ukraine policy, making Türkiye's stance increasingly significant. Without U.S. aid, Europe is unlikely to sustain the war effort independently. This scenario may also foster closer coordination between Washington and Ankara, possibly introducing a new dynamic in Turkish-American relations.

**PALESTINE**

The Palestine issue could become a challenging aspect of U.S.-Türkiye relations. With Netanyahu’s government showing no signs of withdrawing from Gaza and intending to annex parts of the West Bank, Trump’s strong support for Israel could resurface as a major tension point. However, Saudi Arabia’s insistence on a Palestinian state as a condition for normalizing relations with Israel might encourage Trump to push Netanyahu on the issue. Yet if Trump’s backing worsens the situation for Palestinians, disagreements with Türkiye could deepen, heightening tensions. Trump may also resist any push from Israel to act against Iran, but regional instability may nonetheless affect U.S.-Türkiye relations.

**LEADERSHIP DIPLOMACY**

While Trump’s unpredictability presents a potential risk, his personal rapport with President Erdoğan could bring stability to Turkish-American relations. Unlike the Biden administration, which prioritizes institutional relationships, Trump’s approach may lean heavily on leadership diplomacy. With a president more open to Türkiye’s concerns, there could be quicker progress in defense and bilateral issues, and more frequent coordination on regional matters. This approach might enable tangible steps to address long-standing issues. Nevertheless, regional shifts could introduce new surprises and challenges that test the resilience of Turkish-American relations.