Turkey’s Black Sea gas to start heating homes sooner than anticipated

Last month, when I asked Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, during his trip to Albania, if there would be any glad tidings regarding Turkey’s newly discovered natural gas reserves in the Black Sea, he said:

"Our entire vision, the work of the ministry, expert information, and especially the reports from our seismic research ships, all point in this direction."

On Wednesday, Turkey’s Energy and Natural Resources Minister Fatih Dönmez announced that the Fatih drilling ship has embarked on its third voyage in hopes of delivering good news.

“Along with a new [gas] well, fresh excitement has also emerged. Now it's Karasu-1's turn. The Fatih drillship has embarked on its third exploration drill in the Black Sea’s Sakarya field,” Dönmez said.

He added that the drilling will be carried out at a depth of 5,000 meters above sea level and is set to continue for about 2.5 months.

In other words, there’s a strong possibility that we will be hearing of a gas breakthrough in the next few months.

When I say "strong possibility," I should emphasize that we have compelling reasons for this.

Let me elaborate…

As Erdoğan pointed out, reports from seismic research ships in the Black Sea have greatly raised hopes for new gas discoveries.

In July 2021, during my visit to the Fatih drillship, which carries out natural gas explorations 170 kilometers off the coast, I had a conversation with officials from Turkish Petroleum (TP), and was given crucial information.

The most important of them was the following:

Thanks to a new algorithm developed in seismic surveys, the accuracy rate in estimating the amount of natural gas has increased from 20 percent to 80 percent.

Through this new algorithm, they were able to map all kinds of data from the bottom of the Black Sea.

I was told the following:

“We have moved from two-dimensional to three-dimensional surveys in seismic mapping. Using medical jargon, we went from 'x-ray' to 'MR' to ‘CT’."

As you know, in natural gas exploration, seismic surveys are performed first, and then maps of the potential existence of gas wells are drawn before drilling is commenced. 

Energy Minister Dönmez had repeatedly stated that the bottom of the Black Sea largely resembles the Caspian Sea in terms of its natural gas potential.

As you probably already know, we are in the midst of a global energy crisis.

Since the second half of 2021, there have been unprecedented increases in energy prices.

During these harsh winter conditions, countries faced a serious supply and cost conundrum. 

The process we have experienced has put on full display what it means to be dependent on energy imports, especially from Europe.

Of course, this includes Turkey.

Hence, the significance of countries possessing their own energy resources, not only for the sake of their economies, but also to protect their sovereign rights, has become blatant.

Those who opposed this independence should at least reconsider their views after witnessing how helpless Europe is against Russia as the Ukraine crisis rages on.

Turkey had discovered a total of 540 billion cubic meters of gas in two separate drilling explorations in the Black Sea so far.

This figure means meeting the natural gas needs of households across Turkey for 25 years.

So, when can we expect Black Sea gas to start heating our homes?

In a speech announcing the good news following the discovery of 135 billion cubic meters of natural gas in June 2021, President Erdogan said:

“Our colleagues are working day and night to make the Black Sea gas available in 2023. We are determined to finish as soon as possible, both at sea and on land, by rapidly completing the facility in Filyos. Our biggest goal is to accelerate development that would rescue Turkey from energy imports, which makes up the country’s biggest current account deficit.”

In January, the pipes that would transfer natural gas from the Sakarya gas field to the shore began to reach Filyos Port.

In a few months, these pipes will be laid under the Black Sea.

As for the gas flow, it was previously expected to begin pumping in mid-2023.

Another estimate stated that it won’t happen until late May.

However, these studies were later revised and dates have been pushed up.

According to fresh information, during the first quarter of 2023, Black Sea gas will have already started to heat your homes.