Iran-US war on the horizon: Where does Pakistan stand?

Will the US attack Iran? It's abundantly clear that this has become the dominant topic of discussion in recent days. Across various media outlets, "experts" are pondering this issue almost every day. This is hardly surprising, really. The escalating developments are placing a possible war at the center of the media agenda. The US has concentrated one-third of its naval forces—reinforced by hundreds of aircraft—around Iran. Yes, diplomatic negotiations are ongoing. But they are taking place under the shadow of this military buildup. In other words, the US isn't saying, "Let's first let diplomats work without any pressure; if they don't yield results, we'll handle military preparations later." Military buildup and preparations are happening simultaneously with negotiations. This signals that the talks are under duress and essentially warns that little should be expected from these diplomatic channels. Indeed, Iran seems to rely on diplomacy more than the US does. But for the US, negotiations appear to be little more than buying time to complete military preparations for what seems like an inevitable war. As Iran recognizes this, its rhetoric is becoming increasingly militarized. It seems war is being implemented step by step.

Why is Iran, which clearly does not possess nuclear weapons, being targeted while North Korea—which continuously expands its nuclear capacity and missile range—is left aside? The artificiality and lack of credibility in the accusations against Iran are quite obvious. We are facing a version of the scenario once imposed on Iraq and Saddam. Regarding Iran, Israel's regional calculations and America's global ones have aligned. With Iran's collapse, Israel's biggest regional enemy would be eliminated. We know that Iran, along with Pakistan, is China's largest partner in the Middle East. Iran is one of China's primary energy suppliers. That's not all; it is also China's most critical geographical foothold for commercial and strategic expansion into the Middle East. There are also deeply rooted economic relations between China and Israel. But it's clear they don't always see eye-to-eye strategically. While Israel winks at China occasionally—as with the Haifa Port agreement—its main weight is thrown behind India, China's biggest rival. In other words, Israel has dedicated all its investments to connecting the Spice Route with the Mediterranean.

China had balanced the Israel-India rapprochement with the China-Pakistan partnership. It went a step further by adding Iran—Israel's mortal enemy—to this equation. Another Chinese endeavor was Afghanistan, after the US withdrawal. But China hasn't succeeded there as much as it wanted. India moved earlier and managed to bring Afghanistan to its side. Another significant strategic move was China's agreement with Saudi Arabia—which viewed the Abraham Accords process coldly—on a non-dollar payment system. China didn't stop there; it also facilitated the normalization of relations between the hitherto hostile Saudis and Iran.

When considered together, these were the straws that broke the camel's back. The US response was to support the India-Israel rapprochement connecting the Spice Route to the Mediterranean, and to do so with a sharper tone. The US strongly opposed China's acquisition of operating rights in Haifa and Piraeus. It persuaded Italy to terminate its agreements with China. Given Wang Yi's harsh statements toward Israel, China's operations in Haifa and Piraeus will likely become null and void. The US isn't just supporting the connection between the Spice Route and the Mediterranean—the India-Israel axis—it also wants to link this to the Caspian. The rapprochements between Israel-Azerbaijan and India-Armenia, along with the transformation of the Zangezur Corridor into the "Trump Corridor," should be seen as the first steps in this direction. In short, this tripartite configuration also confronts us in the Caspian.

Although the US and Israel don't always agree on methodology, the recent escalations show they are united on the goal of dismantling Iran. Pakistan is aware of the advantages gained by its rival, India. I understand that Pakistan, along with Saudi Arabia, is making an effort to adopt a more flexible stance on the Iran issue to avoid falling out of the system. Although both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have opposed military action against Iran so far, I cannot say I am very confident they would maintain the same sharp posture if the situation moves from potential to actual.

So, what are Iran's primary supporters, Russia and China, doing? Of course, their rhetoric clearly opposes a potential US attack on Iran. But we don't know how far this support extends in military terms. Leaked reports suggest some support has been provided to Iran. However, there is no indication that they would physically enter the war to counter US and Israeli attacks. I also don't think that will happen. Russia probably wouldn't be too concerned about China losing influence. Let's not forget that Russia is also playing the India card. I believe they are calculating how to ride the wave of global relations shaped around the India-Israel axis to reintegrate into the system.

As for China, I don't think they will physically confront the US over Iran either. If that were the plan, they would have initiated it long ago and brought it to a certain level. Perhaps that's what they should have done. Let's speculate: if China had deployed its navy, aircraft, and missile systems in Iran, would the US be acting so recklessly? Leaving aside the debate over where such consequences would drag the world, the picture would be very different from today's. Honestly, considering the feeble reactions and support offered so far—unless they plan to bare their teeth later—the possibility that China may have struck a deal with the US, perhaps over Taiwan, in exchange for abandoning Iran, is not an idea to be easily dismissed.

We are now very close to war. Unless there's a surprise, war appears likely to break out within about ten days. If it doesn't conclude quickly and drags on, it will undoubtedly be far bloodier than anything seen so far in the Middle East. I am saving the regional impacts of this war, and its effects on Türkiye, for another piece. Hopefully, it won't come to that.