What the Trump assassination attempt brings to mind...

The assassination attempt against Trump shook the world. For American society, which is armed to the teeth, presidential assassinations are not all that surprising. To date, 47 presidents have served in the U.S. There have been at least 40 assassination attempts against them. Four presidents lost their lives: Lincoln, Garfield, McKinley, and Kennedy. Presidents like Jackson, Roosevelt, Ford, Reagan, and Bush were among those who survived – some with serious injuries, some with minor ones, and some unscathed. We are not even mentioning those like Robert Kennedy and George Wallace who were killed while still candidates. The only conclusion that a straightforward line of reasoning can draw from this picture is that the U.S. presidency is a rather bloody office, and being president is a job that carries very serious risks.

The U.S. presidency is a highly critical and influential position. Even though checks and balances function, the president's initiatives are considerable. Candidates are selected as a function of the competition among the complex power structures in the U.S. So far, no problem. Whichever power structure is dominant at that stage gets its preferred person elected president.

I think there are two types of assassinations. The first can be exemplified by the two attempts on Andrew Jackson, both of which he narrowly escaped. In his campaign, Jackson opposed the establishment of a central bank – i.e., the unchecked structuring of financial forces and their seizure of the U.S. economy – with the slogan “No Banks,” and he won the election. There is very little doubt that the assassination attempt was orchestrated by the financial barons who flew into a rage at his success. Andrew Jackson was a fearless man with a Southern mindset. He resisted to the end. The money barons were only able to achieve their goal later, during the time of Wilson – who was famous for his alcoholism.

The second motive for assassination has a more complex structure. Here, the danger comes not from the adversary, but directly from the forces that brought the president to power. This is largely connected to the president beginning to take decisions that are outside the line, unexpected from him. For example, Bill Clinton, immediately after taking office, swept under the rug the healthcare reform he had very persistently championed during his campaign. The forces surrounding the U.S. medical system did not want it. They warned him with various briefings. He used his head and gave up. If he had resisted to implement that bill, it is certain that bad things would have happened to him as well. Similarly, Kennedy was sacrificed because he launched some initiatives outside the expectations of the U.S. establishment. We know that Kennedy opposed Israel acquiring nuclear weapons, and that he wanted to end the Vietnam War and shift the printing of metallic currency from the Fed to the Treasury.

These were the last straws, and in the end, they paved the way for Kennedy's Vice President – the evangelical Johnson – to succeed the Catholic Kennedy.

In the U.S., the person who becomes president is not allowed to follow any marginal line other than what is expected of him. Playing with the delicate balances of the establishment is an unforgivable sin, and the price is always exacted. It is clear that Trump has attempted this to an unprecedented degree in U.S. history. Among previous presidents, Trump can perhaps be compared most to Andrew Jackson. But that comparison only goes as far as recklessness. I believe there are two elements that give Trump this recklessness. The first is the rottenness of the establishment, its drift into a political dead end – and the resentment that the average masses in the U.S. feel toward this. This is a surge of feeling known as MAGAism. Trump has taken on the role of spokesperson for these masses. He thought he had huge support behind him. The Zionist/evangelical vein within MAGAism was his biggest reservoir. That vein also connected him to Jewish capital in the U.S. The courage he gained through that connection helped him take a radical stance against the establishment. The establishment had invested all its cards in hostility toward Russia via Ukraine and had gotten stuck in a quagmire. The MAGA masses in the U.S. were extremely disturbed by this. They had realized that the costs of the war were falling on them through an already poor economy. Trump took office promising to end wars and to fix the U.S. by deepening anti‑immigrant sentiment and exclusionism. Domestically, he launched a brutal war against Democratic cadres – whom he sees as representatives of the establishment – and against immigrants. He took his hostility to the establishment to extremes of lawlessness and disregard for rules. Abroad, he continued this with threats and blackmail, as in the cases of Greenland and Canada. He was not successful in Ukraine. But at least he compensated for this failure to some extent by withdrawing support from Ukraine. Where he made a mistake was the Middle East. He thought he could establish a Pax Trumpiana in the Middle East through the Abraham Accords. But this design crashed against Israel's savage Zionism. He reached out his hand to Israel and lost his arm. He suddenly found himself in the quagmire of the Iran war. Now he is struggling to get out of there.

There was another matter that Trump did not calculate, or that I think he miscalculated. We have written a lot about this. MAGA is not a monolithic structure. His complicity in Israel's brutality in the Middle East activated the anti‑Semitic deep structures within MAGA that brought him to power. They see Trump as a leader who betrayed them. This tendency is growing stronger and is eroding Trump's base. Field research points to an erosion of his support toward the November elections.

There are two possibilities regarding the assassination attempt against Trump. The attempt came either from forces of the establishment or from anti‑Semitic MAGA supporters. Perhaps years from now that will become clear. But in any case, we can say that Trump no longer has a future. I am among those who think that Trump's number will be up either by the November elections at the latest, or as early as this summer.

This will create great vacuums in the world and in our region. History does not tolerate vacuums. Everyone must have a Plan B. If the opposite happens – if, despite everything, Trump remains standing – then woe to the world.