One way or another… The Aegean and Cyprus files will also be closed

Whatever crises we are experiencing today are all products of the “old world”… The order established after World War II has collapsed. America’s unipolar world dreams, with its “end of history” thesis, have been ground between the harsh gears of reality. What we are experiencing today are the birth pangs of a new order. All frozen files from the old era are being opened one by one. Those with power are trying to close these files within the framework of their own national security interests before the new order is established.

THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA WAR WILL BE PROLONGED

That’s how Ukraine is: the Russians have never been able to accept losing Ukraine (Aleksandr Dugin, in his book Russian Geopolitics, describes with great fury the strategic vacuum forming on the Eastern European flank). The Russians wanted to control this country through proxy rulers, but Europe’s “color revolutions” pushed Moscow first to attack Crimea (2014) and then the Donbas (2022). It is unclear when this file will close. Russia is getting tired. For the first time in a long time, Ukraine regained in April the territory it had lost in February and March. There was hope for a table. However, the €90 billion package expected from Europe, along with pressure from some countries on Zelensky, seems likely to prolong the process. It is said that Putin has instructed his commanders to “finish this by autumn,” while Zelensky has told his side to “prepare as if the war will last another three years.”

TWO MAJOR UNSOLVED CRISES…

That’s how Syria is: after the Cold War ended, it was impossible for Baathist ideology to survive. In fact, the Türkiye-Syria talks in the mid-2000s aimed to normalize Damascus. This was necessary for regional stability. One could say that Ankara “saw Wednesday coming.” But instead of embracing his people and changing, Assad chose to become more brutal and ignite a civil war. The result is clear.

That’s how Karabakh is: the oppression of Azerbaijani Turks by Armenia, established after the collapse of the USSR. Time has worked against Armenia. The Karabakh file was closed at the right time and on the right ground through the Türkiye-Azerbaijan partnership.

The Iranian crisis, which has now entered a certain track, and the Pakistan-India conflict—which is feared could soon escalate (Pakistani commanders expect greater military tension in the medium term)—also fall within this framework. Beyond these, there are two more major unresolved, frozen crises. One is the Balkans… The other is Taiwan. The Balkans are a matter of balance; Taiwan is a matter of time. British intelligence predicted that China would act on Taiwan in 2027. Whether this will actually happen, or whether Beijing will give more time to a tide that is flowing in its favor, remains to be seen.

THE FRAMEWORK FROM TÜRKİYE’S PERSPECTIVE IS NO DIFFERENT

Ankara, too, is closing the old order’s files one by one in order to consolidate its internal and external stability and to secure its place in the new order by shedding its burdens. The issue of PKK terror is exactly that. The PKK is an organization that was set up to drain Türkiye’s energy during the Cold War climate. At this point, it has outlived its purpose. The Terror-Free Türkiye process is trying to close this parenthesis, a remnant of the Cold War.

We have no border issue with Iran. Nor with the Russians. Bulgaria is now a country trying to mind its own business. The problems with Syria ended with the regime change in Damascus. The normalization process with Armenia is continuing at an accelerated pace. The elections on June 7 are important. If Pashinyan keeps his seat, Yerevan will remove the final obstacle to a final peace and will amend its constitution. Hopes are high; the Caucasus could turn into an oasis of peace.

THEY ARE TRYING TO BREAK THE STATUS QUO

That leaves the Aegean and Cyprus issues. The root of the Aegean problem is Italy losing World War II, leading to the ceding of the Twelve Islands to Greece in 1947. Another problem is the occasional flare-up of Greek radical nationalism. The coup attempt aimed at unifying Cyprus with Greece resulted in Türkiye’s intervention on the island. The crisis has been frozen since 1974. Those who read history, based on recent developments, can say that the waters are warming for these two frozen crises.

Greece’s move toward an alliance with Israel, the French attempt to deploy troops to Cyprus, and Athens’ deployment of missiles on the islands are all attempts to break the existing status quo in the Aegean and Cyprus. Türkiye will not remain silent in the face of these. In response to these developments, Ankara signaled a legislative move regarding maritime jurisdiction areas, upon which Greece took a step back and decided to withdraw the Patriots it had placed in Kerpe and Dimetoka (one of my sources said, “They haven’t withdrawn them yet; we are watching”). As Türkiye’s importance for Europe’s security has now been understood, some European capitals appear to be putting pressure on Athens, sending messages like “Don’t spoil our relationship with Türkiye.” Greek Defense Minister Dendias was forced to say, “We are not shaping our defense strategy against Türkiye.”

THESE FILES WILL ALSO CLOSE

But the problems are clear. Maritime jurisdiction areas, Aegean, Cyprus issues await resolution. Greece, suffering from a “small country” syndrome, is pursuing alliances and steps that also harm its own interests. Yet what needs to be done is simple: Turkish and Greek nations will continue to live side by side. Therefore, the problems must be solved through peaceful methods on a rational basis. But unfortunately, our neighbor does not see itself as strong enough to show such maturity.

If that is the framework… If this patched-up bundle won’t hold together… If everything belonging to the old world is unraveling… Then sooner or later, the turn will come to the Aegean and Cyprus. Five years… Or ten years… One way or another… These files will also close. And as they close, who has the last word will matter.