Does snow ever fall on the provinces of Yemen?

Climates do not only move through the seasons of a single year. Sometimes there are climate cycles that last several years. Periods of drought that last for years, or several consecutive years of harsh winters, heavy rainfall followed by the sudden disappearance of snow. Long stretches with no snowfall at all. Without thinking much about its causes or boundaries, we call this climate change and forget the multi-year circulation of climates, convincing ourselves that everything has completely changed. We say, for example, that such a winter has not been seen for many years. In many parts of the country, snow reaching half a meter in city centers reminds us of winters from the distant past—meaning that nothing has truly disappeared, that everything can return. Our Almighty Lord, who sends snow and rain, also gives or withholds the sun wherever and whenever He wills. But human memory is weak, and human beings are impatient; they assume that the moment they are living in is permanent. God’s days circulate among people. Climates change; oppressions that seem endless come to an end; oppressors are destroyed; the sun rises, and the world becomes bright even through snow.

The situation is no different in social and international relations. The established world order is assumed to be fixed and immovable. In that order, the oppression of the oppressors is seen as permanent, and the oppressed are assumed to be beyond redemption. Times of arrogance and self-sufficiency for the oppressors, times of suffering and hardship for the oppressed. Yet it is only a matter of time before that order is swept away by a flood and turned upside down. It is a historical pattern that God places the oppressed and the weak atop the waves of that flood, elevating them to the upper layers of a new order.

The tension that emerged between Saudi Arabia and the UAE toward the end of the year shook a deeply frozen and troubling order in the region—one that has led to major problems, oppression, deaths, power intoxication, and even Zionist Israel’s expansionism. The Storm of Resolve Coalition, which gave rise to this order, was established 11 years ago to repel the Iran-backed Houthis who had seized Yemen’s capital Sana’a, restore the legitimate government, limit Iranian influence, and secure Saudi Arabia’s borders. However, over time, the coalition failed to push back the Houthis; on the contrary, the Houthis grew much stronger and became capable of launching attacks deep inside Saudi Arabia at will. Since the Houthis could not be repelled, restoring the legitimate government became impossible, and Saudi Arabia’s security became more vulnerable than ever.

In fact, from the very beginning, the coalition feared that rolling back the Houthis would empower the Islah Party, and it deviated from its founding objectives. Islah, the only force on the ground capable of confronting the Houthis, was not completely excluded, but preventing its inevitable rise as an alternative took precedence over stopping the Houthis themselves. A reality that everyone on the ground could easily acknowledge is that had coalition members not been obsessed with Islah from the outset, the problem would have been resolved much earlier. Instead, due to the Muslim Brotherhood phobia that emerged after the Arab Revolutions, coalition members made matters far more complicated. The result was a prolonged stalemate, a state of chaos, and a humanitarian disaster—an internal war in which tens of thousands of children died of hunger and millions of Yemeni civilians were forced to flee their country.

The prolonged civil war produced new international balances. What has happened in Yemen is no longer merely a civil war between local actors or a classic conflict between “legitimacy” and “coup.” The country has turned into a theater of overlapping regional and international conflicts where military, economic, and maritime interests intersect and competing influence projects clash.

Meanwhile, although Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered the coalition under the same banner and slogans in 2015, their calculations and political agendas regarding the coalition gradually diverged. The UAE began implementing an entirely different program in Yemen—one that Saudi Arabia would perceive as a threat. In regions formerly known as South Yemen, the UAE supported armed local forces outside the state structure, building security and military apparatuses loyal to itself, as well as a political structure under the Southern Transitional Council.

The years that followed revealed that unity of objectives did not mean unity of projects. From Saudi Arabia’s perspective, this separatist project not only threatened Yemen’s unity but also brought the Southern Transitional Council’s eastward expansion dangerously close to Saudi strategic lines.

In truth, this split had surfaced long ago. The UAE has not only fueled the civil war in Yemen but has also stoked conflict in Sudan, backing the Rapid Support Forces, which most recently were implicated in serious crimes against humanity in el-Fasher. It is no secret that the entire diplomatic infrastructure behind Somaliland’s recognition—that is, the full framework of relations between Israel and Somaliland—was prepared by the UAE.

It is not difficult to infer that el-Fasher today is advancing along the same path as Somaliland’s recognition. Under the same model, the eventual recognition of the Southern Transitional Council in Yemen, followed by all three aligning themselves with Israel under the banner of “normalization,” constitutes a UAE–Israel plan.

Against all these unilateral initiatives by its partner, Saudi Arabia’s silence until now had been striking. The UAE has acted as Israel’s strongest partner in all of its openings across the Islamic world and Africa.

Some analysts attributed the UAE’s independent actions and Saudi Arabia’s silence to the fact that both were aligned with the US–Israel axis. However, what is certain is that Saudi Arabia had no interest in being encircled in this manner by the UAE and Israel, nor could it fail to perceive this as a major threat.

It was precisely when this threat became unmistakably clear that Saudi Arabia, through a note personally issued by King Salman bin Abdulaziz, demanded that the UAE “withdraw its forces from Yemen within 24 hours.” At the same time, Saudi Arabia struck UAE weapons and armored vehicles, as well as forces affiliated with the Southern Transitional Council.

The fact that the ultimatum came directly from King Salman underscored the seriousness of the situation, and indeed, before 24 hours had passed, the UAE announced that it was withdrawing from the coalition and ending its military operations in Yemen. However, serious doubts remain as to whether it will adhere to this decision, as it is known to conduct operations in many countries without officially acknowledging them.

Still, the fact that Saudi Arabia has felt threatened by Israel’s expansionism and has taken a stand against a coalition that had turned into a separate, deceptive structure with the UAE is a sign of a welcome climate change. I speak with Yemenis, and there is widespread joy and optimism—late, but better than never.

Of course, we can also attribute this development to the winds that the Al-Aqsa Flood continues to stir.