AI could boost GDP by up to 45%, White House economic report says

Artificial intelligence has the potential to increase gross domestic product (GDP) by anywhere from 1% to as much as 45%, according to a report released Wednesday by the White House Council of Economic Advisers. The wide range reflects significant uncertainty about how AI will be adopted, integrated, and scaled across the economy, but early investment data suggests its impact could be substantial.

Early Investment Signals Strong Impact

The report noted that in the first half of 2025 alone, AI-related investment contributed to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.3%, a scale comparable to railroad investment during the Industrial Revolution. This early signal, the council suggested, makes the lowest estimates of AI’s economic impact unlikely. AI is framed as a potentially transformative general-purpose technology, but its full effects will depend on how well it complements human labor, spurs innovation, and spreads across sectors.

Scenario-Based Projections

The upper-bound estimate of 45% GDP growth is based on a hypothetical scenario in which AI could perform all human tasks—a full automation situation that remains highly speculative. More moderate projections assume AI will automate some tasks while creating new roles and industries, leading to more gradual but still significant productivity gains. The report also observes divergent growth trends globally, with the U.S. showing accelerating potential GDP growth even before AI, while Europe and China experience slowing trends.

Policy and Preparedness Implications

The broad forecast underscores the need for proactive policy to harness AI’s benefits while managing disruptions to labor markets, inequality, and economic stability. The White House report implicitly calls for investments in education, worker retraining, regulatory frameworks, and research to ensure that AI adoption boosts inclusive growth rather than exacerbating existing disparities. As AI continues to evolve rapidly, these economic projections will be refined, but the early data reinforces its role as a key driver of future economic performance.