Global markets rally as US-Iran peace deal boosts risk appetite

Global markets surged on Monday following the US-Iran peace agreement, which pushed oil prices to a three-month low and triggered a broad return to risk assets from Wall Street to Türkiye. President Trump announced that a peace deal had been finalized and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, while Iran confirmed that a memorandum of understanding would be signed in Switzerland on Friday. Seda Yalcinkaya Ozer, strategy and investment advisory manager at Yatirim Finansman, told Anadolu that investor appetite for risk returned rapidly as fears over energy supply disruptions faded. “We saw acceleration in aviation, transportation, banking, and shares most sensitive to declining oil prices,” she said.

Türkiye’s strong performance

Turkish assets were among the strongest performers. The BIST 100 index opened 3.02% higher, the banking index surged 6.41%, and transportation stocks rallied more than 5%. Türkiye’s five-year credit default swap (CDS) fell to 225 basis points—its lowest level since February 26. Ozer noted that if global risks continue to slow, the Turkish Central Bank may cut rates. “In this scenario, the index could bottom out at 13,700 before attempting another push towards 15,000,” she said. Banking shares also benefited from reports that legal proceedings involving Halkbank could move toward resolution.

Commodities and central banks

Brent crude fell 4.1% to $82.1 per barrel, while gold rose 3.1% to $4,339 per ounce. In the US, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2%, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.41%. Investors are now turning to central bank decisions. The Bank of England is expected to hold rates, while the Federal Reserve’s first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh is awaited. Market pricing suggests a 73% probability of a Fed rate hike in December. For Türkiye, lower oil prices will help reduce inflation and ease pressure on the current account deficit.