Gold and silver smash records as 2026 rally defies forecasts
Precious metals have entered unprecedented territory, with gold surpassing $4,900 and silver nearing $100 per ounce. Analysts cite a confluence of geopolitical anxiety, central bank demand, and tightening physical supply, particularly for silver, as drivers of a sustained rally that has outpaced major bank predictions.
Gold and silver prices have soared to historic levels in early 2026, continuing a dramatic rally that has left financial forecasts obsolete and analysts pointing to a profound market recalibration driven by geopolitical and monetary shifts.
Prices in Uncharted Territory
On Friday, gold reached an all-time peak above $4,960 per ounce, marking an 80% gain over the past year. Silver's ascent has been even more explosive, surging 225% to challenge the $100 threshold. "These levels are unprecedented," said Philip Newman of Metals Focus, who noted the remarkable lack of profit-taking selling despite the steep climb. His firm now expects gold to reach $5,500 and silver to hit $100 in 2026.
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Forecasts Rendered Obsolete
The velocity of the rally has overtaken projections from leading institutions. Targets set by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley for late 2026 have already been met or exceeded. JP Morgan forecasts an average gold price of $5,055 by the fourth quarter, citing sustained central bank buying, trade tensions, and a softer US dollar as key, enduring drivers.
A Confluence of Structural Drivers
Analysts identify multiple reinforcing factors. "Expectations for Fed rate cuts are central," explained ING strategist Ewa Manthey, noting that anticipated easing supports metals by lowering real yields and weakening the dollar. She and others also emphasize relentless central bank demand, which provides a stable demand floor, and acute physical supply deficits, especially in the smaller silver market where industrial demand from solar and electronics sectors is robust.
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Silver's Dual-Demand Dynamic
The silver market is being pulled higher by both its safe-haven appeal alongside gold and its critical industrial role. "Silver's outlook is more closely tied to the industrial cycle and energy-transition investment," said Joe Cavatoni of the World Gold Council. This dual demand, set against multi-year supply shortages, has fueled its outperformance. China's accelerating industrial and investment demand has added further momentum to the already tight market.
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