Türkiye's Q3 GDP grows 3.7%, annual income tops $1.5 trillion

The Turkish economy registered a 3.7% year-on-year growth in the third quarter of 2025, according to official data released on Monday by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). In current prices, the gross domestic product (GDP) for the July-September period reached 17.42 trillion Turkish liras, equivalent to approximately $409.6 billion. This follows a growth rate of 4.9% in the second quarter and 2.5% in the first quarter of the year, indicating continued economic expansion.

Minister's Assessment and Annual Outlook

Commenting on the figures, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek stated that the annual growth rate for the first nine months of the year stood at 3.7%, with the annualized national income surpassing the $1.5 trillion threshold. "We anticipate that growth will remain moderate in the last quarter and will slightly exceed the Medium-Term Program in 2025," Şimşek said in an official statement. He added that the current growth trajectory is expected to support the ongoing decline in the nation's inflation rate.

Quarterly Trend and Economist Predictions

On a seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarterly basis, economic activity increased by 1.1% in the third quarter, a deceleration from the 1.6% growth recorded in the previous three-month period. The latest growth figure came in slightly below the median forecast of 3.97% from economists surveyed by Anadolu Agency last week. For the entirety of 2025, economists in the same survey had predicted an average annual growth of 3.49%, a target the current performance appears poised to meet or exceed.

Future Projections and Policy Context

Minister Şimşek expressed optimism for the coming year, citing expected improvements in financial conditions and the global economic environment. "We expect the increase in economic activity to be more positive in 2026 than this year," he noted. The data underscores the resilience of the Turkish economy amidst a global backdrop of uncertainty and reflects the outcomes of recent policy measures aimed at achieving sustainable growth and price stability.