China's birth rate hits record low since 1949 as population decline accelerates

China’s birth rate has dropped to its lowest level since 1949, according to official data released on Monday, highlighting the country’s intensifying demographic crisis. The National Statistics Bureau reported a rate of 5.6 births per 1,000 people in 2024, with total newborns falling to 7.9 million—a decline of 1.6 million from the previous year and the steepest drop since 2020.

Fourth Consecutive Year of Population Decline

The continued decline in births pushed China’s overall population down by 3.4 million, marking the fourth consecutive annual decrease. The total population stood at 1.4 billion in 2024, reflecting a persistent downward trend that began in 2021. Despite Beijing’s push to create a “fertility-friendly” society through cash subsidies, extended parental leave, and other incentives, policy measures have yet to reverse the demographic slide.

Record Low Marriages Compound the Challenge

Compounding the issue, China recorded its lowest number of marriages since 1980, with only 6.1 million couples marrying in 2024—a 20.5% drop from 2023. Divorce rates edged up by 1.1% over the same period. Analysts attribute the trends to a shrinking pool of women of childbearing age, as well as social and economic pressures leading younger generations to delay or forgo marriage and parenthood.

Long-Term Implications for Economy and Society

The sustained low birth rate poses significant long-term challenges for China’s economy, including a shrinking workforce, increased elderly care burdens, and potential strains on pension and healthcare systems. The demographic shift may also impact consumption patterns and economic growth, prompting further policy adjustments. While authorities have signaled continued support for families, reversing entrenched social and economic drivers of low fertility remains a complex, multi-generational task.