Climate change threatens Belgium's economy and security, report warns

Belgium's economy, public health systems, and national security face escalating threats from climate change without immediate adaptation measures, according to a comprehensive risk assessment released by the climate institute Cerac. The Belgian Climate Risk Assessment warns the country could experience thousands of heat-related fatalities, repeated infrastructure damage, food and water supply disruptions, and increased pandemic risks from climate-driven mosquito species.

Health Impacts and Vulnerable Populations

The report identifies elderly citizens, low-income groups, farmers, and urban residents as particularly vulnerable to climate effects, though all societal segments will eventually face consequences. Health risks are projected to increase substantially, with over 1,000 additional heat-related deaths annually even under optimistic scenarios. Rising temperatures are also expected to exacerbate allergies, air pollution, mental health issues, and infectious diseases including dengue and avian flu.

Economic Consequences and Insurance Crisis

The assessment presents concerning economic projections, noting that the 2021 floods in Wallonia and Limburg caused approximately €5.2 billion in damages—events likely to become more frequent. Without policy changes, public debt could increase by 15% by 2050, requiring fiscal adjustments equivalent to 1.4% of GDP. The report also warns that rising climate-related insurance claims could make coverage unaffordable or unavailable as reinsurers potentially withdraw from the Belgian market.

Water Scarcity and Agricultural Challenges

Belgium faces growing water scarcity threatening key economic sectors including chemicals, pharmaceuticals, food processing, and tourism. Agriculture may suffer annual losses reaching tens of millions of euros, jeopardizing rural employment and long-term food security. The report calls for comprehensive "sustainable transformation" of farming practices and nationwide adaptation policies to address cross-sectoral climate risks.