Türkiye expects strong grain harvest in 2026, wheat forecast at 23 million tons

Türkiye's agricultural sector is expecting a strong year for grain production in 2026, supported by favorable temperature trends, rainfall distribution in May and continued low drought risks, a sector representative told Anadolu. Yaşar Serpi, chairman of Ankara-based National Grain Council (UHK), said this year's production season had been one of the most notable climatic periods for grain cultivation in the country.

Favorable conditions

He said regular rainfall since autumn had created favorable conditions, while April brought one of the most significant meteorological patterns seen in the past 50 years, helping meet crop water requirements during critical stages of development. Serpi said rainfall levels in central Türkiye exceeded seasonal norms in April, noting that the region accounts for 37% of wheat cultivation areas and 31% of total wheat production.

Regional outlook

He added that rainfall in southeastern Türkiye, which accounts for around 20% of production, had also strongly supported grain development and improved yield expectations in arid regions. "In some areas of Hatay, a yield of 700-800 kilograms (1,543-1,763 pounds) is expected," he said. Grain development in northwestern and northern Türkiye has been more favorable than last year.

Production forecast

"Türkiye could achieve a wheat harvest of around 23 million tons and a barley harvest of 8.7 million tons in the 2026 production season if current climatic conditions don't cause any notable adverse effects by May," Serpi said. He noted that temperature trends during the grain-filling stage, distribution of May rainfall, and continued low drought risk will be decisive.