Türkiye is a "Patron State" – it cannot be limited by NATO!

NATO's 36th summit, scheduled for July 7-8 in Ankara, may well be the "last great summit," given the massive upheavals in global power domains. Because the world is face to face with realities far beyond the "memorized truths" about tomorrow's power map. Uncertainties about which country will partner with whom in the next step have multiplied greatly. Countries are in a state of panic and extraordinary mobility, preparing for the great storm that could hit the world, and are entering into new searches that will push aside all their "sacred" values.

TÜRKİYE'S GEOGRAPHICAL MAP AND NATO'S GEOGRAPHICAL MAP NO LONGER OVERLAP!

The Trump administration's harsh criticisms of NATO, its reactions to Europe such as "now cover your own defense," its statements that "NATO is a burden and we don't want to carry it," the breaking of established patterns from European defense to the "Israel excess," the divergences within the US and Europe, and even within Europe itself, have initiated a deep debate about NATO's very reason for existence. Türkiye, as the Alliance's second-largest military power after the US, attaches great importance to this summit. Almost a state of emergency has been declared in Ankara. The importance of the summit for Türkiye and Alliance members becomes clear when looking at the "timing" and the state of the world. Not only for host Türkiye but for all members, this summit could go down in history as a turning point.

The summit, which Trump is even said to have agreed to "for Erdoğan's sake," forces us to ask the question "how much NATO will there be" in Türkiye's defense pursuits that encompass the geography. Türkiye's own geographical map and NATO's geographical map no longer fully overlap.

FROM SOUTH ASIA TO AFRICA, TÜRKİYE HAS BECOME THE GREATEST POWER.

Let's speak plainly: from South Asia to East Africa, Türkiye is the region's greatest military power and defense supplier. So we need to look beyond the nursery rhymes of "NATO's poorest country" and carefully watch the echoes of "Türkiye's return to the stage as a major player." Will Türkiye do business with the US, with NATO, or with Europe? Will a new security area be built for European defense outside NATO, and what will Israel's position be there? Will Türkiye, beyond the traditional NATO structure, establish a special relationship with the US and bilateral, special relations with European countries? For now, this seems the healthiest option.

THE WESTERN ALLIANCE WILL FACE ITS GREATEST CHALLENGE IN ANKARA...

Of course, this summit will be the scene of a great challenge, a show of the Alliance as the "power that designs world security." Because there is no other military alliance like this in the world. This reality will amplify the effect of every assertive word. That is why the Western Alliance may deliver perhaps its last great challenge from Ankara. Let's say it outright: NATO is the only supranational institution of the post-World War II Western order still standing. The others are gone, dissolved, forgotten, or remain as they are—cumbersome structures with no influence left. With the UN's very structure now being subjected to deep questioning, with the injustice of the five permanent members being harshly criticized even by Türkiye, and with a Western world that has lost its old solidarity, the questioning of NATO will go far beyond old criticisms and trigger structural changes.

THE ALLIANCE ALWAYS LEFT TÜRKİYE ALONE. IT ALWAYS TREATED TÜRKİYE LIKE A "MERCENARY."

Türkiye struggled for forty years against waves of terrorism that burned its borders and cities. NATO never helped. Türkiye was threatened from its southern and western borders; NATO never stood by it. These days, Israel can openly say it will "attack Türkiye." We have not seen a single reaction from NATO. There are many similar examples. For NATO, Türkiye meant "soldiers who will fight for US and European interests." But this understanding is undergoing a radical change these days. For the last decade, NATO has had no contribution to Türkiye's defense technologies or the architecture of its partnerships oriented toward the geography. On the contrary, Alliance members have always seen these developments as threats, restricted them, and placed obstacles. This is the first sign that Türkiye's future plans and Europe's future plans will certainly not overlap.

IF THE US DISTANCES ITSELF, WILL TÜRKİYE BECOME THE "MILITARY BOSS"?

What if the US distances itself from NATO? Will the Alliance turn into a European defense force? What will the countries that today seek Türkiye's support for European defense against the Russian threat do in such a case? Will they take refuge in Türkiye's military leadership? Will these countries, which did not admit Türkiye to the EU and saw it as a threat, make the same mistake regarding NATO? How will the division in Europe affect the Alliance after the US distances itself? Can it withstand the divergence between German-French continental Europe and Anglo-Saxon Europe, or Southern European countries like Italy and Spain? Today's European countries do not fight for England. England does not fight for continental Europe. Southern Europe, on the other hand, will never abandon its own defense pursuits just because "NATO exists." It knows that would be suicide.

SO, IF A CONFLICT BREAKS OUT TOMORROW IN THE AEGEAN, WHAT WILL THE NATO ALLIANCE DO?

Türkiye wants NATO to continue. It wants the Alliance to remain as a stabilizing factor until a balanced power order is established. But it will not need its existence forever. Just as today it does not need EU membership—indeed, it has begun to see it as a burden—tomorrow it will think the same about NATO. For Türkiye, the future of the Alliance is full of great trials. If a conflict breaks out tomorrow in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean, how will NATO behave? Will it support Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration, especially under pressure from EU membership? How will it look at a possible military partnership between Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Pakistan? If England, under Europe's direction, tries to drag Türkiye into war with Russia, what will happen if a Türkiye-NATO divergence occurs?

TÜRKİYE CANNOT BE A COUNTRY LIMITED BY THE EU OR NATO.

There are very difficult questions. The essence is this: Türkiye's regional and global calculations and its NATO membership no longer fully align. The Alliance, in this sense, limits Türkiye—indeed, it still sees Türkiye as a "frontline country" out of old habits. Türkiye is no longer a force that will fight for Europe. It will support European defense, but it will not be a "mercenary." I suspect that NATO's future will fall victim to fragmentation within Europe. EU members will seek different security arrangements outside the Alliance umbrella and turn toward national policies. It is already possible to say that once US tutelage is lifted, some European countries will establish new relations with Russia. Türkiye is no longer a country that can be limited by the EU or NATO. It has its own search. It has its own calculation of regional collective security shields. There is a deep mistrust between it and the West. There is a vast history that feeds this mistrust. It does not actually need NATO or the EU. But the Atlanticist security perception is still alive, and that is why it still champions Western institutions.

TÜRKİYE WILL REMAIN FAITHFUL TO ITS OWN GEOGRAPHICAL MARCH. HISTORY WILL FLOW THAT WAY...

Ultimately, Türkiye's own march and its calculations for partnerships oriented toward its geography are beyond all this. History will flow that way too. Türkiye is no longer bound by the strategic value definition of a "frontline country." It is a country operating on the "Patron State" model. This will change all calculations—and it is already changing. I believe Türkiye does not envision a future under the patronage of institutions like the EU or NATO. Rather, it envisions a special alliance relationship with the US and separate, special alliance relationships with European countries. Meanwhile, it specifically refuses to enter into security crises with Russia. Looking at this map, it is clear that NATO holds no hope for Türkiye's future either.

THE 10TH ANNIVERSARY OF JULY 15. WHO DID THIS? THE SUMMIT IS RIGHT BEFORE IT. SO WHAT ARE WE TO THINK?

Let us remember: the month the NATO summit is held in Ankara, one week later is the 10th anniversary of the July 15 attack. This event, recorded in history as a "coup attempt," was in fact an external intervention. It was an attack on Türkiye. And some NATO members were involved in it. They still protect the perpetrators in their countries today. These countries were also imposing military embargoes on Türkiye. Türkiye's great historical and geographical mobilization intensified precisely after this attack. "Walking the path with geographical partners, without needing anyone"—after that date, it created a power field that confused even NATO and made Europe turn to Türkiye for support. This was a miracle. Perhaps it was the greatest equation-changing development of the 21st century.

WE WERE TO BE DRAGGED INTO WAR WITH RUSSIA, THEN "SHRUNK"!

This is exactly how we need to look at everything. We do not want hostility or enmity with anyone, but this country, heir to an imperial legacy, has a vivid memory. We will not embrace any step that turns us back into a "frontline." If July 15 had succeeded, Türkiye would have been dragged into war with Russia. It would once again have become a frontline country. Then it would have been shrunk. They even designed domestic political arrangements and initiatives for this, testing this country with political terrorism as well. The rule of the game is to speak in terms of power ratios. Calculations will now be made accordingly. Türkiye is doing just that. When considering not only Türkiye but also the US's new security architecture, the EU's new security searches, and Türkiye's large-scale geographical security shield plans together, it becomes clear that a traditional military alliance like NATO no longer aligns with the new global power mathematics.

THAT IS WHY THE LAST SUMMIT COULD BE IN ANKARA!

I believe the US saw this first and began taking steps accordingly. Taking similar steps will also become necessary for Türkiye. I think Türkiye will maintain military relations with the US rather than NATO, focusing on priorities that prepare the geography for such a future. After all, it now operates on the "Patron State" model. This changes everything—even history. That is why the NATO summit in Ankara could be the Alliance's last great summit. This is an era where everyone speaking in old memorized truths loses! We will move forward with new sentences.