Türkiye needs sustained rainfall to ease two-year water deficit

Assessing the January 2026 Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) maps released by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM), Kadıoğlu said the country’s drought reflects a prolonged accumulation of rainfall deficits rather than a short-term anomaly.

“Türkiye entered 2026 with the heaviest water deficit in the last two years; meteorological drought has brought hydrological and agricultural drought,” he said.

He noted that western and central regions have experienced below-normal precipitation for more than two consecutive years, placing major urban centers — including Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir — under increasing pressure.

“The water deficit accumulated during this period will not be offset by a few months of heavy rainfall,” he warned, stressing that short-term precipitation spikes can create a misleading sense of recovery.

Agricultural risks deepen

Kadıoğlu emphasized that areas classified under “exceptional drought” are experiencing historically low soil moisture and water table levels. Groundwater, which accounts for roughly 60% of Türkiye’s agricultural irrigation, is particularly strained in central farming regions, where levels are falling by an average of three meters annually.

“This means a debt deepening by three meters a year,” he said, adding that recent extreme rainfall events damaged surface crops but did little to replenish deep aquifers.

With March through May identified as the critical agricultural window, Kadıoğlu cautioned that if temperatures remain elevated, yield losses are unavoidable. Although partial dam capacities have offered temporary relief for irrigated crops such as maize and sunflower in some southern provinces, precipitation throughout the water year remains significantly below seasonal norms.

“There is hope in irrigated areas, but the crisis risk continues in rain-fed farming areas,” he said, noting that early crop development in southeastern regions has already been negatively affected.

Spring forecast raises concern

Regional projections indicate that spring temperatures are likely to run 1–2 degrees Celsius above long-term averages. Kadıoğlu pointed to a notable climatic contrast: the northern Black Sea coast remains largely unaffected due to continuous inflow of humid air masses from the Black Sea.

Mountain ranges block these systems from reaching central Anatolia, effectively creating what he described as a “moisture island” along the coast while interior basins remain dry.

Long recovery horizon

Kadıoğlu stated that recovery from deep hydrological drought would require at least six to twelve months of sustained above-average rainfall — a scenario not currently supported by seasonal forecasts. Groundwater replenishment in central agricultural hubs could take decades.

To mitigate risks, he called for strengthened urban conservation policies, optimized inter-basin water transfer systems, accelerated adoption of drip irrigation, expansion of drought-resistant seed varieties and wider implementation of rainwater harvesting.

He also warned that a dry and hot spring could leave dam reservoirs critically low ahead of summer, potentially leading to water restrictions and crop losses in dry farming regions. “Water is no longer just a climate issue, but a matter of strategic national resources,” he said.