Türkiye warns war in Iran could trigger global inflation, supply chaos

The ongoing conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran poses serious threats to the global economy, Turkish Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek warned late Monday, citing surging energy prices and supply chain disruptions. Speaking on Akit TV, Şimşek emphasized that the war is unfolding in one of the world's most strategic energy and trade corridors, with nearly 20% of global oil supplies passing through the region.

Energy prices spike as routes disrupted

Şimşek highlighted dramatic price increases since the conflict began, with Brent crude climbing more than 40% above its pre-war Friday closing level. Natural gas prices in Europe have jumped over 56%, while jet fuel costs have risen by nearly 100%, he noted. The minister pointed to simultaneous blockages in both the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, which have significantly extended shipping times between Asia and Europe. If oil price hikes persist, they could have a substantial impact on global inflation, he warned.

Türkiye stands resilient amid turmoil

While warning of risks including global inflation, tighter financial conditions and potential stagflation from a prolonged war, Şimşek highlighted Türkiye's relative stability. Following the outbreak, Ankara quickly convened to analyze scenarios and implement proactive measures. These steps successfully limited the fallout on Turkish markets, with the stock market decline held to just 5.5%. In contrast, markets in Indonesia, South Korea and South Africa experienced drops of 10% or more. Şimşek described Türkiye as an "island of stability," positioning the country as a vital alternative for global firms seeking to diversify their supply chains away from conflict zones.

Defense industry strengthens position

The minister also noted that Türkiye's growing defense industry capabilities enhance both its deterrent power and technological advancement. This sector, he suggested, further strengthens the country's position as a reliable partner and stable hub amid regional turbulence. As the conflict continues to disrupt global trade and energy markets, Ankara's proactive approach appears aimed at transforming challenges into opportunities for greater economic resilience.