Amazon nearing irreversible tipping point, scientists warn before COP30

Scientists have issued urgent warnings that the Amazon rainforest is moving dangerously close to an irreversible ecological tipping point as Brazil prepares to host the COP30 climate conference. Research indicates that approximately 17% of the Amazon has been completely cleared—an area comparable to France and Germany combined—while another 17% has suffered significant degradation from human activities.

Regional Climate Disruption

According to Franco-Peruvian researcher Jhan-Carlo Espinoza from France's Institute of Research for Development, the southern Amazon Basin is already experiencing dramatic ecological changes. Regions in Bolivia are undergoing "increasingly severe and prolonged droughts" that are transforming rainforest into savanna-like terrain, while northern areas face intensified flooding due to disruptions in the hydrological cycle. Record drought conditions in both 2023 and 2024 have accelerated these worrying trends.

Carbon Absorption and Water Cycle Impacts

The combination of deforestation and rising global temperatures has severely compromised the Amazon's capacity to absorb carbon dioxide and maintain regional rainfall patterns. Espinoza emphasized that approximately half of Amazon rainfall is generated through tree transpiration, meaning forest loss directly reduces precipitation. This degradation threatens water availability and food security across South American nations including Bolivia and Peru, where agricultural systems depend on stable climate patterns.

COP30 Context and Global Implications

The upcoming UN climate summit (COP30), scheduled for November 10-21 in the Amazonian city of Belem, will focus on converting previous climate commitments into concrete actions and increasing financial support for vulnerable nations. Scientists hope the summit will address the critical thresholds facing the world's largest tropical rainforest, which plays an indispensable role in global climate regulation and biodiversity preservation.