Europe grapples with Arctic dilemma as Trump renews push for Greenland

European policymakers and analysts are confronting a stark geopolitical challenge in the Arctic as the United States under President Donald Trump intensifies its campaign to acquire Greenland. While a military seizure is considered feasible, experts warn the political consequences would be catastrophic, forcing Europe to navigate between deterring unilateral U.S. action and preserving a crumbling transatlantic alliance.

A Military Easy Win, A Political Disaster

Analysts starkly assess the military and political imbalance. "Militarily, it would be extremely easy for the world's strongest armed forces to take over Greenland," stated Ionela Ciolan of the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. However, she warned the move would have "lethal repercussions," causing "the deepest rupture in US–EU relations" and potentially ending NATO, a scenario that would primarily benefit Russia and China. This places the EU in a precarious position, caught between upholding international law and confronting its most powerful ally.

Between Law, Deterrence, and Diplomacy

The crisis has spurred debate on Europe's limited response toolkit. International law scholars, like Oxford University’s Antonios Tzanakopoulos, emphasize that annexation by force violates the UN Charter, creating a duty for states to react to prevent normalizing such violations. Proposals from European capitals range from establishing a permanent EU military presence in Greenland and increasing NATO Arctic exercises to crafting cooperative frameworks, such as joint development of Greenland’s mineral resources. The latter, experts caution, must be led by Greenland and Denmark to avoid appearing as a concession under threat.

The Specter of Venezuela and the Test of Unity

The Trump administration’s recent operation in Venezuela looms large over the Greenland debate, creating a precedent that Europe is accused of handling too softly. Denis Cenusa of the Geopolitics and Security Studies Center warned that if the EU admits a "double standard" in applying international law, "Trump will not hesitate to take advantage." The bloc’s fragmented foreign policy, often reaching for the lowest common denominator among its 27 members, complicates a robust unified stance. The fundamental tension, as framed by analysts, is whether Europe can simultaneously confront the U.S. over Greenland while maintaining support for Ukraine and other shared priorities.