Five lessons from the Strait of Hormuz for a new world disorder

The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28 has rapidly escalated beyond a regional confrontation, fundamentally altering global power dynamics. While Washington has suffered a "strategic defeat" in the eyes of many analysts, the conflict has also revealed transformative shifts in the international system. The events around the Strait of Hormuz have laid bare the fragility of 21st‑century geopolitics and the emergence of new power parameters. Disrupted energy flows, paralysed maritime trade, and direct attacks on Gulf states have turned this war into a watershed moment.

“The US as a systemic disruptor”

The timing and nature of the strikes—launched while diplomatic talks were still ongoing—showed that Washington no longer prioritises international law or norms. The massive bombardment of Kharg Island in March 2026, which destroyed over 90 targets, was not merely a military act but an attempt to exert global pressure through energy blackmail. President Trump’s threat to “obliterate” Iran’s energy infrastructure if the Strait was not reopened confirmed that “peace through strength” has become outright military intimidation. By calling NATO a “paper tiger”, the US president demonstrated that America has transformed from a rule‑setting hegemon into a source of uncertainty and risk.

“Overseas bases as threat multipliers”

One of the war’s most striking outcomes was that US military installations no longer provide security guarantees to host countries; instead, they turned those nations into front‑line targets. Iranian drone and missile strikes against US‑linked facilities in Oman, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE proved that alliance with Washington has become a liability rather than insurance. The inability of the US to fully protect its partners—or even its own bases—has severely damaged the image of America as a reliable security provider. For Gulf states, the military partnership with Washington now carries unacceptable risks.

“The rise of cheap drones and AI‑powered warfare”

Iran’s low‑cost Shahed drones created an asymmetric threat that neutralised expensive conventional systems. The near‑total halt of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz demonstrated the effectiveness of swarm tactics and inexpensive platforms. At the same time, evidence emerged that US operations relied heavily on AI‑driven targeting and planning systems. Artificial intelligence has moved from a supporting role to a decisive factor in managing modern warfare. The lesson is clear: future conflicts will be cheaper, more accessible and far less predictable.

“No more safe havens for Gulf economies”

Iranian strikes against energy infrastructure in Qatar, the UAE and Bahrain shattered the image of these wealthy states as “islands of stability”. Disrupted LNG production and damaged facilities have forced international investors to reconsider their exposure to the region. For decades, Gulf countries attracted capital because they were seen as insulated from great‑power conflicts. That perception is now gone. Investment decisions will increasingly be determined not by economic opportunity but by security capacity. The war has also raised uncomfortable questions for US allies in Southeast Asia facing Chinese pressure: if Washington cannot protect the Gulf, what guarantee does it offer elsewhere?

“Strategic waterways as geopolitical weapons”

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil passes, triggered a global energy crisis. Oil prices soared above $100 a barrel, stoking inflation worldwide. In some countries, petrol stations closed and rationing was imposed. Iran’s policy of denying passage to “enemy” vessels turned maritime trade into a tool of coercion. The Hormuz crisis demonstrated that the Suez Canal, Bab el‑Mandeb and other chokepoints can be used to paralyse the global economy. Geography, once again, has become the ultimate force multiplier.

The contours of a new order

The war instigated by Israel and joined by the United States is not just another Middle Eastern conflict—it is a harbinger of a new international system. In this emerging order, overseas military bases generate risk rather than security. Technological innovation in warfare forces constant adaptation. Economic attractiveness depends on physical protection. Strategic geography has regained its primacy. The five lessons from the Strait of Hormuz will serve as a reference point for understanding the shape of geopolitical competition for years to come.