Fractured politics and crime shape Peru’s presidential vote

Peruvians head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president from a crowded field of 35 candidates, with experts predicting a June 7 runoff as no single contender is expected to secure an outright majority. The election unfolds against a backdrop of chronic political turbulence and rising public anxiety over crime.

Fragmented field and familiar faces

Leading the pack is Keiko Fujimori of Fuerza Popular, making her fourth presidential bid despite facing 70-80% disapproval ratings. Her far-right platform is shadowed by her father Alberto Fujimori’s contested legacy and her own legal battles. Also on the right is Rafael Lopez Aliaga, who recently stepped down as Lima’s mayor for his second campaign. On the anti-establishment left, 80-year-old media mogul Ricardo Belmont has gained traction, while pro-Castillo congressman Roberto Sanchez runs on a platform of political vindication for the ousted former president.

Decade of instability, resilient economy

Peru has cycled through eight presidents in ten years, weathering impeachments, congressional dissolutions, and social unrest. Yet its economy remains an Andean outlier, largely due to the independent Central Reserve Bank, which operates shielded from political volatility. Analyst Franco Olcese noted that Peruvian businesses have “learned to navigate a system defined by this chronic uncertainty.”

Crime and the ‘Bukele’ factor

For most voters, security trumps ideology. Homicides surged past 2,600 last year amid record extortion and organized crime. Frontrunners have proposed drastic “iron-fist” measures: Lopez Aliaga suggests Amazon penal colonies, while Fujimori pushes inmate labor. Comedian-turned-candidate Carlos Alvarez, dubbed the “Peruvian Zelensky,” advocates mega-prisons and the death penalty, drawing on Trump and Bukele-style rhetoric. Olcese noted that Alvarez has the lowest disapproval rate, reflecting deep public rejection of traditional politics.

Constitutional reforms and geopolitical stakes

New bicameral rules taking effect July 29 will require a two-thirds majority in both chambers to remove a president, offering future leaders more stability. Meanwhile, the election carries global weight: China is Peru’s top trading partner, with the Chancay megaport expanding Asian ties, while the US pushes to counter Beijing’s influence through security cooperation.