Germany rejects regime change in Iran, warns of 'chaos' and refugee crises

Germany's foreign minister on Tuesday rejected the idea of pursuing regime change in Iran and warned that any resulting chaos would harm the region and Europe. "A controlled regime change is, I would say, a hypothetical idea which is not realistic," Johann Wadephul told the Europe 2026 conference, emphasizing that all past regime change efforts have failed.

Lessons from Iraq and Libya

"If you look at what happened in Iraq, what happened in Libya, the examples are bad enough, and we should learn a lesson out of this," the minister said, adding that there could be no military solution to the conflict. He reiterated Germany's desire for a swift end to the fighting and called for intensified diplomatic efforts to establish a post-war security framework in the region, once the US and Israel conclude they have met their military objectives.

Stability concerns

"Chaos in Iran is as bad as the regime is," Wadephul said and warned that this could destabilize the region and trigger new refugee crises. "It's not in our interest, not in the interest of the region, and of course not in the interest of the people living in Iran," he said. The warning reflects European concerns about potential spillover effects from the conflict, including mass displacement.

Conflict context

The US and Israel launched joint attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, killing over 1,300 people according to Iranian authorities, including former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and more than 150 schoolgirls. The conflict has expanded to include a ground offensive in Lebanon that has displaced over one million people, with German officials increasingly worried about broader regional destabilization.

European position

Germany has consistently refused to participate in the US-Israeli military campaign, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz ruling out naval deployments to the Gulf and calling for a political solution. Wadephul's remarks reinforce Berlin's position that military action alone cannot resolve the crisis and that post-war planning must prioritize stability over regime change.