Germany's far-right AfD surges to historic lead in latest poll

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has reached its highest-ever polling numbers, surpassing the mainstream conservative bloc for the first time in a national survey.

The Ipsos poll released Wednesday showed the AfD climbing to 25% support—a 3-percentage-point increase from March—while the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party (CSU) dropped to 24%, their lowest level in three years.

The historic shift comes as Chancellor-designate Friedrich Merz struggles to form a governing coalition more than six weeks after February's parliamentary election. His CDU/CSU alliance won the election but has seen its support erode during lengthy negotiations with the Social Democrats (SPD).

The SPD remained steady at 15% in the new poll, slightly below their February election result of 16.4%. The environmentalist Greens declined one point to 11%, while the socialist Die Linke gained two points to reach 11% — its strongest showing since December 2016.

The AfD's surge was attributed to widespread voter frustration with mainstream parties and the prolonged government formation process. Chancellor hopeful Merz's alliance had campaigned on promises of stricter immigration controls and economic reforms, but concrete policy outcomes await the conclusion of coalition negotiations.

The weeks-long coalition talks between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats are expected to conclude later Wednesday with the announcement of a draft agreement. CDU/CSU parliamentary group leader Thorsten Frei announced Tuesday that the talks had entered their “final stretch,” with parties making significant progress on key policy issues.

The draft coalition deal between the CDU/CSU alliance and the SPD will require approval from relevant party bodies and delegates. The Social Democrats will hold a membership-wide vote, while the Christian Democrats will make their decision through a small party conference. If approved, the German parliament could elect conservative leader Friedrich Merz as the new chancellor on May 7.