Gulf states urge US not to strike Iran, fear oil chaos

Key Arab states bordering the Persian Gulf are privately lobbying the United States to refrain from launching a military strike against Iran, fearing it would unleash uncontrollable economic and political turmoil across the Middle East. According to reports, Saudi Arabia, joined by Oman and Qatar, has intensified diplomatic outreach to the Trump administration following White House warnings to prepare for potential action against Tehran.

The Stakes: Global Oil and Regional Stability

At the heart of their concern is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint through which approximately 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes daily. Gulf officials have reportedly warned their American counterparts that any military campaign to destabilize Iran's regime would almost certainly lead to the disruption of these vital energy shipments, causing a global economic shockwave. They also fear severe domestic backlash, economic damage, and direct Iranian retaliation against their territories.

A Calculated Distance from Conflict

Despite their historical rivalry with Iran, Gulf monarchies, particularly Saudi Arabia, are taking steps to distance themselves from a potential US-led conflict. Saudi officials have reportedly conveyed to Tehran that Riyadh will not participate in any hostilities or grant the US access to its airspace for strikes. This cautious stance reflects a fundamental preference for stability over regime change. As former US Ambassador Michael Ratney noted, Gulf leaders "have no love for the Iranian regime, but they also have a great aversion to instability," especially as Saudi Arabia pursues its ambitious Vision 2030 economic diversification plan.

The Unpredictability of a Post-Khamenei Iran

Beyond immediate war risks, Gulf leaders are deeply apprehensive about the unpredictable aftermath of a collapsed Iranian state. There is no clear, stable alternative to the current theocracy; power could fracture, potentially falling to even more hardline elements like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or descending into prolonged civil conflict that spills across borders. The Gulf's preferred outcome is not a violent overthrow but internal reform within Iran that reduces its regional assertiveness while maintaining a functioning state.

A Region on a Knife's Edge

This high-stakes diplomacy unfolds as Iran enters its third week of widespread anti-government protests, with human rights groups reporting a death toll in the hundreds and thousands detained. While US President Donald Trump has publicly encouraged protesters, stating "HELP IS ON ITS WAY," the Gulf states' urgent behind-the-scenes appeals highlight the vast gulf between Washington's rhetoric and the complex, risk-averse calculations of Iran's neighbors, for whom war represents an existential economic and security threat.