Iran shifts strategy: Fewer but more precise strikes on Israel as Gulf attacks decline

Iran's retaliatory campaign has undergone a notable shift as the conflict enters its fourth week, with strikes on Gulf countries declining while attacks on Israel become less frequent but significantly more effective, according to compiled data. The pattern suggests Tehran is refining its targeting strategy.

Gulf attacks decline

Analysis of figures from defense and interior ministries across the UAE, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan, along with Israeli security research, shows the frequency of Iranian strikes on Gulf nations has decreased compared with the war's first week. Qatar has recorded 256 missile and drone attacks since Feb. 28, with no new strikes reported since March 20. Saudi Arabia saw attacks peak at 98 on March 16 before declining to first-week levels. The United Arab Emirates was the most heavily targeted Gulf nation, facing 2,156 attacks, followed by Kuwait with 833.

Israel: Fewer strikes, greater impact

According to Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, Iran launched 290 missiles and 500 drones at Israel in the first two weeks. In the third week (March 15-22), those numbers fell to 80 missiles and 50 drones—a nearly 50% drop in missiles and an 80% drop in drones. However, strike effectiveness in terms of accuracy, damage and casualties increased markedly. On March 21, a missile struck the southern city of Arad, injuring 84 people, including 10 seriously. The same day, 31 people were injured in strikes near the Dimona Nuclear Power Plant. On March 19, missiles caused explosions in Haifa near petrochemical facilities, oil refineries and power plants.

Strategic shift

The data indicates Iran is conserving its arsenal while improving targeting precision, focusing on strategic infrastructure and maximizing casualty impact. This shift comes as the US-Israeli offensive against Iran continues, with more than 1,340 killed since Feb. 28, including former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.