Iran’s nuclear status shrouded in ambiguity seven months after US strikes, talks to resume

Seven months after US President Donald Trump declared Iran’s nuclear program “completely and totally obliterated” following airstrikes on three key facilities, the actual status of Tehran’s nuclear capabilities remains shrouded in ambiguity. With indirect US-Iran negotiations set to resume in Oman on Friday, critical questions linger over the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and the real impact of the military strikes carried out during the Iran-Israel war last June.

Conflicting Assessments of Damage

While Trump and CIA Director John Ratcliffe described the strikes as severely damaging Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, UN nuclear agency chief Rafael Grossi termed the damage “very considerable” but stopped short of calling it annihilation. Iranian leaders have dismissed US claims as exaggerated, with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insisting the US “could not achieve anything significant.” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that nuclear knowledge “cannot be obliterated,” even if facilities are damaged.

Uncertainty Over Enriched Uranium

A major point of contention is the whereabouts and condition of approximately 400 kilograms of enriched uranium. Iranian officials have stated the material is “under the rubble” of bombed sites, while the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has raised concerns about lack of access for verification. Some analysts suggest part of the stockpile may have been moved before the attacks, though this remains unconfirmed. Satellite imagery indicates reconstruction has begun at some affected sites.

IAEA Relations and Inspection Deadlock

Cooperation between Iran and the IAEA deteriorated sharply after the war, with Iran’s parliament passing a law suspending broad oversight until security guarantees are provided. While IAEA inspectors have returned to some unaffected sites, Tehran has refused inspections at bombed facilities, demanding that “post-war conditions” be formally defined. The standoff has fueled Western pushes for further anti-Iran resolutions at the IAEA.

Upcoming Negotiations and Iranian Red Lines

The upcoming talks in Oman, facilitated by Turkish diplomacy, will revisit issues left unresolved before the June conflict. Iran is expected to insist that its missile program and regional activities are excluded from discussions, using its enrichment capabilities as leverage. Senior advisor Ali Shamkhani recently ruled out transferring enriched uranium out of the country, while nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami reiterated that nuclear weapons have no place in Iran’s defense doctrine.

Strategic Ambiguity as Policy

Analysts note that Iran appears to be maintaining deliberate ambiguity around its nuclear progress as a strategic asset, particularly as it faces renewed US naval deployments and diplomatic pressure. The talks will test whether a fragile diplomatic path can be restored amid deep mutual distrust and unresolved military tensions.