Israel pushes US toward wider war with Iran as diplomacy hangs by thread

By Sernur Yassıkaya

As indirect US-Iran nuclear talks continue in Geneva, Israel is intensifying pressure on the Trump administration to launch a comprehensive military strike against Iran rather than accept any diplomatic compromise, viewing a negotiated deal as the worst possible outcome. Israeli officials have reportedly demanded that any action target not only Iran's nuclear program but also its missile technology—and preferably result in regime change.

Washington's "Let Israel Strike First" Calculation

Politico magazine reported that some White House officials have suggested it would be politically advantageous for Israel to initiate any military action against Iran, with the expectation that Iranian retaliation would then justify broader US involvement. This strategy reportedly aims to overcome American public reluctance to engage in another Middle East war by framing US action as defense of an attacked ally. Polls suggest Americans support regime change in Iran but are wary of American casualties, making the "Israel-first" approach potentially more palatable domestically.

Israel's Worst-Case Scenario: A Deal

Israeli newspaper Maariv reported deep concerns in Tel Aviv that President Trump might seek a superficial, rapid agreement with Iran similar to arrangements made with the Houthis, which could leave Iran's ballistic missile program and proxy networks intact while providing financial resources to strengthen the regime. For Israeli security circles, the nightmare scenario is a partial deal that legitimizes and funds Tehran while leaving it capable of retaliation. The ideal outcome from Jerusalem's perspective remains a large-scale American military operation targeting nuclear and missile facilities, ideally culminating in the collapse of the Islamic Republic.

Regional Dominoes

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of a "Hexagon" alliance system encircling Middle Eastern states, while opposition leader Yair Lapid has voiced support for expansionist visions, raising alarms about broader Israeli ambitions. Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Recci warned that Israel has threatened Lebanon's infrastructure should Hezbollah enter any US-Iran conflict, following the group's pledge not to remain neutral if Iran is attacked. The warnings underscore how any war could quickly engulf the region.

American Military Realities

US military officials have expressed concerns about air defense shortages, noting that sustained conflict could leave tens of thousands of American troops in the region vulnerable. Some members of Congress warn that a prolonged engagement with Iran would undermine US military deterrence against China. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) assessed that current US force levels suffice for limited punitive strikes but are inadequate for regime change or long-term occupation—a reality that complicates both Israeli ambitions and American strategic calculus as Trump's deadline expires next week.