Myanmar's military holds elections unlikely to resolve deepening crisis

Myanmar's military regime, the Tatmadaw, is set to begin multi-phased general elections this Sunday, marking the first such exercise since its February 2021 coup. The polls, scheduled across three dates in December and January, are widely seen by experts as a tool to legitimize the junta's grip on power rather than a genuine democratic process, and are expected to deepen the nation's instability.

A Nation in Conflict and Disarray

The elections unfold in a country ravaged by internal conflict. Since the coup, which ousted the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD), armed resistance and ethnic conflicts have left thousands dead and displaced over 3.5 million people. Approximately 40% of Myanmar's 54 million population requires humanitarian aid. The junta, led by coup leader Min Aung Hlaing, has lost control of key strategic and trade routes, with borders largely under the influence of opposition ethnic armies. The persecuted Rohingya minority remains disenfranchised and displaced.

The Structure of a Controlled Vote

The electoral framework ensures military dominance. Under the 2008 Constitution, 25% of parliamentary seats are reserved for military personnel. The NLD and dozens of other parties were dissolved in 2023. Only a handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party with over 1,000 candidates, are contesting the 664-seat parliament. Voting will not be held in many conflict-ridden areas, and the junta has not announced a timeline for vote counting or result declarations.

Expert Analysis: Elections as a Facade

Analysts argue the exercise will exacerbate rather than solve Myanmar's crises. "Elections are not meant to resolve the longstanding political issues but are designed to create some impression... that things are improving," said Burmese politics expert Maung Zarni, predicting "more conflict and more political instability." He described a "triangular conflict" between the military, the ethnic Burmese majority seeking democracy, and minority ethnic groups demanding autonomy. Rohingya expert Ro Nay San Lwin stated the junta's goal is to "present the military government as a civilian [one]" and "re-legalize the 2008 Constitution" to ease international pressure. Both agree the result will be a continuation of military control in civilian disguise, with regional acceptance from powers like China and India being a key junta objective.