NATO support for Türkiye would test alliance readiness, expert says

NATO's commitment to Türkiye in the event of widening regional conflict would serve as a critical measure of alliance readiness, according to security expert Murat Aslan speaking at a Paris roundtable on Türkiye-NATO relations. The Hasan Kalyoncu University faculty member and SETA senior researcher warned that the ongoing US-Israeli attacks on Iran risk expanding toward the Gulf region, with inevitable consequences for both Ankara and the transatlantic alliance.

"Modern conflicts increasingly involve confrontations between states and non-state actors," Aslan observed, advocating for what he termed a "hybrid response" integrating military, political and security measures. His remarks came amid intensifying hostilities that began Feb. 28 when the US and Israel launched joint operations against Iran, resulting in more than 1,200 fatalities including Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, according to Iranian authorities.

International order under strain

Presidential Chief Adviser Cagri Erhan delivered a stark assessment of the global landscape, declaring that "the rules-based international order is under attack from all sides." Speaking at the discussion hosted by the Turkish Embassy in Paris and attended by nearly 30 French and Turkish journalists, Erhan noted that "right now, no one is talking about international law. Everything on the table is based solely on national interests."

Erhan highlighted the convergence of multiple crises, including the Russia-Ukraine war and escalating Middle East conflict involving the US, Israel and Iran, warning that disruptions to global trade and supply chains pose increasing risks. He announced that Türkiye will host an upcoming NATO summit in Ankara, bringing together alliance members and international partners "to discuss strengthening NATO's defense against emerging security and defense risks."

Regional instability's global reach

Kilic Bugra Kanat, research director at SETA in Washington, emphasized that Türkiye possesses extensive experience managing instability along its borders but cautioned that the current crisis could trigger unprecedented regional upheaval. He predicted defense spending across Middle Eastern nations would likely increase regardless of whether attacks cease, warning that "if the conflict continues and any kind of civil war emerges in Iran, the consequences would be significant."

Kanat stressed that populations throughout the region remain exhausted after years of conflict, while the recent attacks have already begun influencing global energy prices. "What happens in the Middle East does not stay in the Middle East," he concluded, citing precedents from Syria and Iraq where regional turmoil produced far-reaching international repercussions.