OPINION: Europe in 2025 took key steps toward strategic autonomy

The year 2025 revealed that Europe can pursue strategic action when consensus is forced by external events, though it has not yet overcome the structural limits of its political architecture. Faced with a shifting US foreign policy, Europe asserted that its presence is indispensable in resolving the Ukraine war—a core European security issue. This was evidenced by securing a €90 billion loan for Ukraine through 2027, providing critical financial stability and demonstrating the strength of pragmatic forces seeking a sustainable end to the conflict that protects Ukrainian sovereignty.

Progress and Persistent Challenges in Defense

Europe entered a period of sustained rearmament, with more member states meeting the 2% of GDP defense spending target. Spending shifted toward practical needs like ammunition, air defense, and industrial capacity, reflecting lessons from Ukraine. However, progress is hampered by national procurement fragmentation, interoperability gaps, and slow delivery timelines. While "coalitions of the willing" often bypass institutional sluggishness, decision-making by unanimity on sanctions and security funding continues to empower spoilers and slow responses.

Evolving External Relations in a Harsher World

The transatlantic relationship remains central but has grown more conditional and transactional, sharpening Europe's awareness of the strategic risks of over‑dependency. Relations with Russia have hardened into "managed hostility," with entrenched sanctions and energy decoupling, though this also eliminates dialogue leverage. With China, Europe pursued cautious de‑risking without full decoupling, aiming to avoid being drawn into US‑China rivalry. In the Middle East, Europe's role remained that of a stabilizer and donor, constrained by limited hard power and divergent member‑state interests.

The Path Ahead and Türkiye's Role

The trajectory for 2026 hinges heavily on the outcome in Ukraine. A successful settlement could allow resources to shift toward reconstructing Ukraine and building a new European security order, while maintaining deterrence. Critical next steps include reinvigorating military risk‑reduction measures and crisis communication channels to manage the long contact line with Russia. Relations with Türkiye saw a quiet, pragmatic rebalancing in 2025, with deepened cooperation on migration, energy, and Black Sea security. While EU‑Türkiye relations remain formally stalled, this functional rapprochement offers strategic potential, positioning Türkiye as a possible bridge‑builder in a future European security order.