Precious metals crash brings little relief to electronics industry amid severe RAM shortage

The dramatic collapse in precious metal prices on January 30, 2026, delivered a historic shock to commodity markets but offers limited respite for an electronics industry gripped by the most severe memory shortage in a generation. Gold futures fell 11.4%—their steepest single‑day decline in four decades—while silver plummeted 31%, its worst session since 1980. The sell‑off was triggered by President Donald Trump’s nomination of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, which strengthened the US dollar and undercut safe‑haven demand.

RAM Shortage Overshadows Commodity Volatility

While lower gold and silver prices may ease some input costs, the industry’s primary constraint remains a structural RAM shortage caused by the wholesale reallocation of semiconductor capacity toward artificial intelligence infrastructure. Major producers SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung—which control about 95% of DRAM supply—have prioritized AI‑grade memory, leaving consumer electronics segments undersupplied. Gold and silver remain essential for semiconductor packaging and conductive components, but their price swings are secondary to the memory bottleneck.

Geographic Concentration Adds Supply Risk

The industry’s vulnerability is compounded by extreme geographic concentration in precious metal refining. China controls an estimated 60–70% of global refined silver supply, and its new export restrictions, effective January 1, 2026, could reduce worldwide availability by up to 50%. Switzerland dominates gold refining. These choke points make sustained price weakness unlikely and underscore strategic dependencies that no short‑term correction can resolve.

Long‑Term Adaptation and Recycling

Over the past decade, manufacturers have reduced gold dependence in wire bonding from 77% to 44%, shifting to copper where possible. However, high‑reliability applications in automotive and defense electronics still require gold and silver properties that lack substitutes. E‑waste recycling offers a promising long‑term supply alternative, with circuit boards containing 40–800 times more gold per tonne than mined ore. The US and EU are designating silver as critical and planning stockpiles to improve resilience.

Outlook

The January price crash is likely a correction within a longer bull market rather than a structural shift. Electronics producers should welcome temporary cost relief but recognize that the RAM shortage—not commodity volatility—remains the binding limit on production. Supply chain resilience, driven by material diversification and regional stockpiling, will define strategic planning for the coming decade.