Regional convergence, US engagement signal potential Libyan breakthrough, analyst says

A revival of regional coordination among Libya's key neighbors, combined with expanding US and UN engagement, may be reshaping the landscape for a potential political breakthrough in the divided country, according to Libya affairs specialist Beshir Al-Jouini. The researcher in international relations told Anadolu that renewed activity in the trilateral consultation mechanism between Egypt, Algeria, and Tunisia signals more than routine diplomacy—reflecting narrowing regional positions that long complicated stabilization efforts.

Red Lines Fading

The mechanism, reactivated in 2025 after years of dormancy, convened in Tunis in late January, with foreign ministers affirming Libya's solution must remain internally driven. Al-Jouini identified the most consequential shift in evolving Cairo-Algiers understanding. "In previous years, we saw clearly drawn red lines," he recalled—Egypt's 2020 warning over Sirte and Jufra, Algeria's firm Tripoli stance in 2021. "Today, those red lines no longer define the space of movement. That alone reduces the risk of escalation."

International Push

Libya remains split between the internationally recognized Government of National Unity in Tripoli (Abdul-Hamid Dbeibah) and an eastern-based government (Osama Hammad) in Benghazi. Al-Jouini cited intensified economic activity since late 2025, energy summits, and expanded US engagement. A Paris meeting reportedly brought together eastern chief of staff Saddam Haftar and national security adviser Ibrahim Dbeibah. Plans for a March joint military exercise in Sirte, bringing eastern and western forces under US sponsorship, could symbolically merge political, economic, and security tracks.

Gaddafi Killing Complicates Picture

The recent killing of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of former ruler Muammar Gaddafi, has further complicated the landscape. Al-Jouini described the assassination as political, questioning who benefits most at a moment when reconciliation initiatives were gaining traction. Speculation has circulated regarding possible responsibility, including allegations involving eastern-linked forces.

The Core Question

"The convergence between Egypt and Algeria is positive for both countries and for Libya," Al-Jouini said. "But no mechanism can replace a genuine Libyan-Libyan dialogue." He asked whether emerging momentum will produce a sustainable settlement ending transitional phases, establishing a constitution, and enabling synchronized elections—or become "another formula for managing division and distributing power among rival elites."