OPINION: Russia-Ukraine war: identity, sovereignty and security order

The war in Ukraine has triggered widespread sympathy for Ukrainians, while its immediate global effects are mostly felt through food and energy disruptions rather than existential threats. Yet the true global impact lies in the framework that may eventually end the conflict. Whatever rules, guarantees or compromises emerge will influence how sovereignty, borders and security are treated worldwide, making it essential to grasp what is fundamentally at stake.Identity and sovereignty at the core

Claims that Russia acted mainly out of fear of NATO enlargement fail to explain key facts, including the 2014 occupation of Crimea, when Ukraine was constitutionally non-aligned. The conflict is instead rooted in Moscow’s rejection of a distinct Ukrainian identity and its attempt to curtail Ukraine’s sovereignty. This pressure targets four areas: territorial control, military capacity, foreign policy autonomy and domestic political influence, particularly cultural and religious life.

Security guarantees and deterrence

Any lasting peace requires Russia to accept Ukraine’s right to determine its internal and external policies democratically, a prospect that currently appears unrealistic. In practice, durability depends on credible security guarantees that are legally binding and backed by concrete military and financial commitments. With even NATO’s Article 5 debated in Western politics, creating guarantees credible to Kyiv, guarantors and Moscow alike remains extremely difficult.

Territory, non-recognition and military balance

A viable endgame must rest on the non-recognition of occupied Ukrainian territories, ensuring that temporary control is never mistaken for legal ownership. Conceding territory, such as parts of Donetsk, would weaken Ukraine’s defenses and create dangerous precedents, potentially encouraging future aggression and even weapons proliferation elsewhere. Ukraine’s military capabilities, especially asymmetric deterrence, therefore remain central, a view strongly supported by Ukrainian public opinion.

Towards a new European security architecture

Ukraine’s security ultimately depends on a broader European or transatlantic framework, as the old Helsinki-based order has collapsed. Any agreement on Ukraine will likely shape future debates on deterrence, guarantees and identity across Europe. In this context, Türkiye holds a distinctive position, with deep historical understanding of the region and the ability to engage all key actors, giving it a potential role in facilitating a just and sustainable peace.