Russia warns Armenia over risks of shifting toward the West

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a pointed warning to Armenia during a meeting in Moscow on Thursday, stressing the "risks" associated with Yerevan's pivot toward the West. The talks with Armenian Parliament Speaker Alen Simonyan highlighted the deepening diplomatic rift between the two traditional allies, stemming from Armenia's recent efforts to distance itself from Moscow following its military defeat to Azerbaijan.

Content of the diplomatic warning

According to a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry, Lavrov and Simonyan held "a frank and substantive exchange of views ... on current issues in Russian-Armenian relations." While Moscow reiterated its commitment to strengthening military, economic, and cultural ties, it explicitly warned of "the risks of rapprochement with the West to the detriment of cooperation with traditional allies." The talks also covered cooperation within Eurasian integration projects and the importance of regional formats like the "3+3" platform involving Russia, Türkiye, Iran, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia.

Context of Armenia's foreign policy shift

The stern message from Moscow comes amid a significant reevaluation of Armenia's foreign policy. Since Azerbaijan's decisive victory in the 2023 war, which resulted in Baku regaining control of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Yerevan has openly criticized Russia for failing to provide adequate security support as a treaty ally. This perceived abandonment has prompted Armenia, under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, to actively seek stronger political and security partnerships with the European Union and the United States, a move viewed with deep suspicion in the Kremlin.

Broader regional implications

Armenia's potential realignment represents a strategic setback for Russia in the South Caucasus, a region it has long considered within its sphere of influence. The warning from Lavrov is an attempt to deter further Western inroads and reaffirm Moscow's predominant role. However, with Armenia actively pursuing arms deals with France and India and deepening EU engagement, Yerevan appears determined to reduce its decades-long dependency on Russia, setting the stage for continued friction between the two capitals.