Syrian migration to Germany drops 46% as returns increase post-conflict

Syrian arrivals in Germany fell to 40,000 in the first nine months of 2025, a sharp decline from 74,600 the previous year. Meanwhile, returns to Syria increased by 35% as Chancellor Merz declared the civil war over and announced plans to encourage repatriation.
Syrian migration to Germany has decreased dramatically in 2025, with new arrivals dropping by nearly half compared to the previous year according to official statistics. The Federal Statistical Office reported approximately 40,000 Syrian arrivals from January through September 2025, down 46.5% from the 74,600 recorded during the same period in 2024, signaling a significant shift in migration patterns following the resolution of Syria's civil war.
Increasing Returns to Syria
Concurrent with the decline in new arrivals, the number of Syrians leaving Germany has risen substantially. Departures reached 21,800 during the first nine months of 2025, representing a 35.3% increase over the 16,100 who left during the comparable period in 2024. This trend reflects changing conditions in Syria and evolving German policy toward Syrian refugees now that active conflict has ended.
German Policy Shift on Syrian Refugees
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has articulated a new government position, stating that with the civil war concluded, "There are no longer any grounds for asylum in Germany, and therefore we can begin repatriations." While emphasizing expectations for voluntary returns, Merz indicated his administration would take a strict approach toward deporting Syrian nationals who have committed crimes or lack legal status. The chancellor expressed hope that many Syrians would "return to the country of their own accord and participating in the reconstruction."
Demographic Context and Political Debate
By the end of 2024, approximately 1.22 million people with Syrian migration backgrounds resided in Germany, with about one-quarter having obtained German citizenship. Among Syrian nationals who fled the conflict, 90% held humanitarian residence permits with recognized protection status. The situation of Syrian refugees has become a contentious political issue in Germany, particularly as the far-right AfD party has gained traction by advocating for accelerated returns.
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