Trump declares US trade deficit slashed 78% by tariffs, predicts 2026 surplus

President Donald Trump declared Wednesday that his administration's tariff policies have slashed the US trade deficit by 78%, with expectations that 2026 will mark the first annual surplus "in many decades." In a Truth Social post, Trump credited tariffs imposed on other companies and countries for the dramatic improvement, which has reshaped global trade dynamics during his second term.

Trade Data and Tariff Impact

Government statistics show the goods and services trade deficit narrowed sharply from a record $140.5 billion in March 2025 to $27.62 billion in October—a decline of approximately 80%—though the figure widened to $56.82 billion in November. December data scheduled for release Thursday is projected to show a $55.50 billion surplus, which would represent the first positive monthly balance since 1975. Despite recent improvements, the US remains on track for an annual deficit exceeding $800 billion in 2025, down significantly from the record $1.2 trillion recorded in 2024. The first-quarter surge in imports, driven by businesses stockpiling goods ahead of Trump's April "liberation day" tariffs, accounts for much of this year's remaining shortfall.

Revenue and Economic Strategy

US Treasury data indicates fiscal year-to-date tariff revenues reached $124 billion as of January, marking a 304% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Trump has deployed tariffs both as protectionist measures to revive domestic manufacturing and as diplomatic leverage, though the policy has roiled global markets and strained relations with allies including Canada and the European Union. The aggressive trade posture reflects the administration's commitment to fundamentally rebalancing global trade flows in Washington's favor.