Trump threatens Mexico with 5% tariff over water treaty dispute

President Donald Trump has issued a threat to impose a 5% tariff on Mexican imports if Mexico does not comply with water release obligations under a longstanding US-Mexico water treaty. In a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, Trump accused Mexico of violating the treaty and causing serious harm to agricultural interests in Texas.

Details of the Water Dispute and Demands

The President asserted that Mexico has accumulated a water debt exceeding 800,000 acre-feet over the past five years and has been unresponsive to US demands. He set a specific deadline, stating, "The U.S. needs Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water before December 31st, and the rest must come soon after." Trump framed the issue as a matter of fairness to American farmers who rely on the allocated water for crops and livestock.

Threat of Tariffs as Leverage

Trump explicitly linked the water dispute to trade policy, declaring he has "authorized documentation to impose a 5% Tariff on Mexico if this water isn’t released, immediately." This threat represents an escalation in using economic measures to resolve non-trade bilateral issues, a hallmark of his administration's foreign policy approach. It follows his earlier claims that tariffs are effective tools for national security and diplomatic leverage.

Context of the Treaty and Regional Implications

The 1944 Water Treaty governs the shared use of waters from the Colorado River and the Rio Grande. Disputes over water allocations, particularly during drought conditions, are recurring sources of tension between the two neighbors. For a nation like Türkiye, which also manages complex transboundary water agreements, such disputes highlight the potential for resource scarcity to escalate into significant diplomatic and economic confrontations between allied states.