According to a draft report from the U.S. Department of Defense, China has likely installed more than 100 new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in recently constructed launch silos near its Mongolian border. The assessment, which cites a significant and rapid expansion of Beijing's nuclear capabilities, also states that Chinese officials show "no appetite" for engaging in comprehensive arms control discussions.

China's expanding nuclear arsenal

The report details a substantial growth in China's nuclear forces. While noting the stockpile was around 600 warheads in 2024, representing a slight slowdown from prior years, the Pentagon assesses that China remains on track to possess more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by the year 2030. The newly deployed missiles are reported to be solid-fuelled DF-31 ICBMs, a more modern and responsive system compared to older liquid-fueled models.

Beijing's rejection and counter-accusations

Chinese officials have firmly rejected the Pentagon's findings. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian labeled the report as a U.S. tactic to "find excuses for accelerating its own nuclear forces' modernisation and actions disrupting global strategic stability". Lin stated that China adheres to a defensive nuclear strategy, maintains a "no-first-use" policy, and keeps its capabilities at the minimum level required for national security. He argued that the United States, possessing the world's largest nuclear arsenal, should first make substantial reductions to create conditions for broader disarmament talks.

Strategic context and regional tensions

The reported missile deployments are occurring at silo fields whose existence was previously confirmed by U.S. intelligence. Analysts view the expansion as part of a broader modernization of China's military, which includes goals to strengthen deterrence. This buildup unfolds amid longstanding regional tensions, with the Pentagon report also referencing Beijing's ambitions regarding Taiwan. The developments contribute to heightened strategic competition and complicate prospects for new international arms control agreements.