US seeks leverage over Cuba after Venezuela precedent, report says

The Trump administration is looking for potential allies within Cuba’s leadership to help negotiate an end to Communist rule before the end of the year, according to a report by the Wall Street Journal. US officials cited in the report say Washington believes Cuba is entering a period of acute economic and political weakness following the loss of key support from Venezuela, reshaping calculations in Havana and across the region.

Venezuela precedent shapes US thinking

Officials told the newspaper that the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has become both a model and a warning for Cuba’s leadership. While there is no detailed plan for dismantling the Cuban system, US policymakers see the outcome in Venezuela as proof that sustained pressure combined with insider cooperation can force concessions. President Donald Trump publicly urged Havana to negotiate, warning in a Jan. 11 social media post that “no more oil or money” would be sent to Cuba if it refused to engage.

Economic pressure as main lever

US intelligence assessments reportedly describe Cuba’s economy as nearing collapse, with severe shortages of food, medicine and electricity. Washington is said to be considering further steps to cut off Venezuelan oil supplies and restrict Cuba’s overseas medical missions, which are the island’s primary source of foreign currency. Officials believe these measures could deepen internal strains and open space for negotiation.

Contacts with exile groups and insiders

According to the report, US officials have held meetings with Cuban exile groups in Miami and Washington to identify individuals within Cuba’s government who might be willing to negotiate. The operation that led to Maduro’s capture was reportedly aided by an insider, reinforcing the belief in Washington that internal fractures could play a decisive role in Cuba as well.

Signals without open military threats

While US officials deny plans for direct military action against Cuba, they said the Venezuela raid was intended to demonstrate the consequences of defiance. Some officials close to Trump describe his approach as applying maximum pressure while leaving room for talks, rather than pursuing a traditional regime-change strategy. Allies of the president, however, increasingly expect the collapse of Communist rule, even as they warn of potential instability.

Havana rejects coercion amid social strain

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel has rejected any negotiation under pressure, stating that there can be “no surrender or capitulation” based on intimidation. In Havana, worsening blackouts and fuel shortages have left streets quiet at night, broken by residents banging pots from their homes in a silent protest. “People are afraid of being reported,” said Rodolfo Jimenez, a lifelong Havana resident, describing the growing sense of desperation across the city.