US underestimated Iran's resolve to close Strait of Hormuz

The Pentagon and National Security Council failed to adequately factor into their planning the possibility that Iran would respond to US and Israeli attacks by closing the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple sources cited by CNN and other outlets . Senior Trump administration officials reportedly acknowledged during classified briefings to members of Congress that they had not anticipated Tehran taking this step, leaving Washington confronting what some describe as a worst-case scenario .

Strategic Miscalculation

The administration's assumption rested on the belief that shutting the strait would inflict greater economic damage on Iran than on the United States—a view reinforced by Tehran's decision not to follow through on similar threats following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last June . Officials from the Treasury and Energy departments attended some planning meetings, but their economic forecasts and interagency analyses were given less prominence than in previous administrations, sources said . President Trump's preference for relying on a tight circle of advisers further sidelined broader debate over potential economic consequences .

'Dumbfounded' Reaction

The unfolding crisis has left diplomats, former US officials, and energy executives in a state of disbelief. "Planning around preventing this exact scenario—impossible as it has long seemed—has been a bedrock principle of US national security policy for decades," a former official who served in both Republican and Democratic administrations told CNN. "I'm dumbfounded" . Shipping companies have repeatedly requested military escorts from the US Navy for oil tankers, but those requests have so far been declined, with military officials warning that risks to naval assets remain extremely high .

Limited Options

Energy Secretary Chris Wright acknowledged Thursday that naval escorts cannot begin immediately. "It'll happen relatively soon, but it can't happen now. We're simply not ready," he told CNBC, noting that military assets are currently focused on offensive operations . Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated escorts would begin "as soon as it is militarily possible" . Meanwhile, Iran's newly installed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei signaled that keeping the Strait closed would remain a "tool of pressure" . The administration is now exploring emergency measures including potential Jones Act waivers and regulatory changes, though experts warn such steps may only partially offset the impact of global supply disruptions .